Analisis Forex & Kajian: 08.02.2023 - S&P 500 outlook for...

08.02.2023 04:44 PM

S&P 500 outlook for February 8, 2023

Futures on S&P 500 broad market index (reflected as CFD #SPX in the trading terminal) remain positive, trading in a bull market zone, above key support levels 4030.00 (50 EMA on the weekly chart), 4000.00 (200 EMA on the daily chart).

Despite the Fed's hawkish statements about the prospects for monetary policy, economists believe that it remains soft, given high inflation and a strong labor market. At the same time, high inflation contributes to the further depreciation of the dollar. In addition, the U.S. stock market seems to have turned upward again after the December Fed meeting, at which the rate was raised by 0.50% (and not by 0.75%, as it was in June, July, September, November) and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that "the received data on inflation for October and November do indicate a long-awaited reduction in price pressure" although, in his opinion, "much more evidence is needed to be sure of a decrease in inflation."

After the December meeting, market participants began to bet on a further slowdown in the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike, and then on a pause and, possibly, the reverse process in the near future.

One way or another, the S&P500 futures are currently trading near 4150.00, in the zone of 6-month highs reached on February 2 near 4195.00. The breakout of this local resistance level will be additional evidence in favor of the revival of the global bullish trend of the S&P 500 and, perhaps, of the entire U.S. stock market.

Above the important short-term support at 4054.00 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), nothing threatens long positions.

But its breakdown will be the first signal for shorts trading on the S&P 500. The breakdown of the key support level 4000.00 (200 EMA on the daily chart), 3975.00 (144 EMA on the daily chart) will return the S&P 500 inside the downward channel on the weekly chart, sending the index to the key support level 3730.00 (200 EMA on the weekly chart).

However, only a breakdown of the strategic support levels 2820.00 (144 EMA on the monthly chart), 2540.00 (200 EMA on the monthly chart) will indicate the breaking of the long-term bullish trend of the S&P 500.

In general, the buy-and-hold strategy is still relevant for the U.S. stock market and its S&P 500 index.

Support levels: 4122.00 4085.00 4054.00 4030.00 4000.00 3975.00 3890.00 3800.00 3730.00 3700.00 3600.00 3500.00 2820.00 0.040

Resistance levels: 4195.00, 4324.00, 4540.00, 4630.00, 4810.00

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 4085.00. Stop-Loss 4205.00. Whole 4054.00, 4030.00, 4000.00, 3975.00, 3890.00, 3800.00, 3730.00

Buy Stop 4205.00. Stop-Loss 4085.00. Whole 4300.00, 4320.00, 4400.00, 4500.00, 4600.00, 4700.0, 4800.00, 4900.00

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Trading plan

Jurij Tolin,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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