Analisis Forex & Kajian: 21.09.2023 - EUR/CHF dynamics scenarios on...

21.09.2023 03:50 PM

EUR/CHF dynamics scenarios on September 21, 2023

The EUR/CHF dynamics are dominated by a long-term bearish trend. Today, the pair sharply strengthened after the Swiss National Bank's meeting, where the bank's leaders left the deposit rate at 1.75%, although economists expected an increase of 0.25% to 2.00%. Despite the bank's statement that "further tightening of monetary policy may be required in the medium term, and additional interest rate hikes are not ruled out," the market reacted negatively to this decision. The Swiss Franc sharply weakened immediately after the announcement, and EUR/CHF reached its highest point since mid-July, at 0.9675.

In the subsequent hours, EUR/CHF declined, and the pair is generally trading in a bearish market, both in the long-term and medium-term, below key resistance levels of 1.1800 (200 EMA on the monthly chart), 1.0300 (200 EMA on the weekly chart), and 0.9745 (200 EMA on the daily chart).

As of writing, the pair is trading near the 0.9635 level, declining from the reached high of 0.9675.

A break below important support levels such as 0.9600 (50 EMA on the daily chart), 0.9582 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), and 0.9577 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) would signify a return of EUR/CHF to the downward trend. And below the local support level of 0.9525, the pair will return within the downward channel on the daily chart, with its lower boundary near the 0.9300 mark. This would serve as the target for long-term sellers of this currency pair.

In an alternative scenario, EUR/CHF may still develop an upward correction above today's high of 0.9675. In this case, a breakout of key resistance levels at 0.9745 and 0.9780 (50 EMA and the upper boundary of the downward channel on the weekly chart) would mean a return of EUR/CHF to the medium-term bullish market zone with prospects for growth towards local resistance levels at 0.9970 and 1.0000. Rising towards levels above 1.0200 and 1.0300 resistance levels would lead EUR/CHF into the long-term bullish market zone.

In the main scenario, we expect a resumption of the pair's decline. Short positions remain preferable below the resistance levels of 0.9745 and 0.9780.

Support levels: 0.9600, 0.9582, 0.9577, 0.9525, 0.9500, 0.9400, 0.9300

Resistance levels: 0.9675, 0.9700, 0.9745, 0.9780, 0.9800, 0.9900, 0.9970, 1.0000, 1.0140, 1.0300

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Jurij Tolin,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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