Trade analysis and tips for trading the European currency
The price test at 1.0929 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving up from zero, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro as part of the continuation of the upward trend. As a result, the rise amounted to more than 35 points. Statistics from the Eurozone and service sector activity could have been clearer. Many indicators did not even reach economists' forecasts, while some were significantly below average expectations. However, we also await important statistics on the U.S. service sector activity index and the composite PMI index, including manufacturing activity. In the case of poor statistics, pressure on the U.S. dollar will increase, further strengthening the euro. Strong statistics will limit the pair's upward potential. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0966 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1039. At 1.1039, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong upward movement of the euro today can only be expected after weak U.S. data, which cannot be ruled out. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case the price at 1.0930 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. An increase to the opposite levels of 1.0966 and 1.1039 can be expected.
Sell signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the 1.0930 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0851, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of strong statistics. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case the price at 1.0966 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0930 and 1.0851 can be expected.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line – the entry price, where you can buy the trading instrument.
The thick green line – the presumed price, where you can set Take profit or fix profits yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
The thin red line – the entry price, where you can sell the trading instrument.
The thick red line – the presumed price, where you can set Take profit or fix profits yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important. For novice traders in the Forex market, it is necessary to be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during the news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, such as the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for a day trader.
