Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the price at 1.2735 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pound's further downward potential. Thus, I decided not to sell at the lows, fearing a market reversal. After a short period, there was another test of this price. Within the expected sideways channel and with the MACD in the oversold area, it seemed like a good option for buying the pound, which I did. Unfortunately, the pair did not rise. The pound continued to lose positions, resulting in incurred losses. In the second half of the day, we expect figures on the US trade balance and the TIPP/RCM Economic Optimism Index, which are unlikely to stop the pound's downward trend, and with good numbers, it may only strengthen it. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches the entry point around 1.2717 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the level of 1.2755 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.2755, I will exit purchases and open sales, expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from this level. The pound's growth today can only be expected after weak US statistics. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just start its rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2681, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.2717 and 1.2755 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.2681 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2635, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from this level. Sellers will assert themselves only after strong US data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2717, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.2681 and 1.2635 can be expected.

Chart Details:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – presumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – presumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – It is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make market entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.