Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 145.93 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upwards from the zero line, confirming an appropriate entry point to buy the dollar in anticipation of a correction following the significant sell-off observed during the Asian trading session. As a result, the pair moved up by about 60 points, but pressure on the dollar soon returned. We did not reach the target level of 146.91. In the second half of the day, we expect data on the U.S. Leading Indicators Index and a speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller. A dovish tone from Waller and strong demand for the Japanese yen could lead to another USD/JPY sell-off, testing the weekly low. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to follow Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 146.80 (the green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 147.34 level (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 147.34, I will exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35 point movement from this level. A significant rise in the pair today is not likely, as all correction limits have already been exhausted. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning its upward movement.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 146.13 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the levels of 146.80 and 147.34 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking below the 146.13 level (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 145.40 level, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20-25 point movement from this level. Pressure on the pair will return in the event of disappointing U.S. economic data. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 146.80 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the levels of 146.13 and 145.40 can be expected.

Chart Details:

• Thin Green Line – The entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line – The anticipated price where you can set a take profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line – The entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line – The anticipated price where you can set a take profit or manually lock in profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it's important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use risk management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.