Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The marked levels I indicated were not tested in the second half of the day. As a result, finding suitable entry points into the market was impossible. Despite relatively decent US data, low volatility and limited demand for the euro led to the pair being confined within the horizontal channel. Today, the euro is at risk of encountering difficulties, as relatively weak data is expected for August of this year. The business sentiment indices from the ZEW Institute across Eurozone countries may turn out worse than economists' forecasts, which could lead to a reasonably substantial correction in the euro ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting. A lack of reaction to weak data would indicate a real possibility of further growth in the pair. In that case, I would consider buying to continue the upward trend. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the price of around 1.1136 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the level of 1.1178. At the 1.1178 mark, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point. A further rise in the euro today in the first half of the day could be expected as part of the ongoing bullish momentum. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting its upward movement.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1117 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.1136 and 1.1178 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the level of 1.1117 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1078, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Selling pressure on the pair today could return if there is a failed attempt to break above the daily high and weak Eurozone data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1136 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1117 and 1.1078 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
