Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The first test of the 1.0934 level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly downward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's bearish potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. Shortly afterward, there was another test of 1.0934, coinciding with the MACD indicator returning from the oversold zone, which allowed Scenario #2 for buying to take place, resulting in a 10-point increase for the pair. However, a larger upward movement did not follow, as the lack of statistics affected intraday volatility. In the second half of the day, alongside scheduled speeches from Fed officials, important U.S. Consumer Price Index data for September will be released. If the CPI rises above forecasts—though a slowdown in price pressure is expected—the U.S. dollar is likely to strengthen, leading to a further decline in the euro. The euro may only recover if the inflation data falls below expectations. The weekly initial jobless claims report is unlikely to play a significant role today. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to proceed with Scenario #1, taking into account the MACD readings, as I expect a substantial and directional movement.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches around 1.0946 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.0979. At 1.0979, I will exit the market and sell the euro, expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction. A strong upward movement in the euro could follow the release of the inflation data. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and has just begun its rise before buying.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0927 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the next resistance levels of 1.0946 and 1.0979 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.0927 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0901, where I will exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points from this level). Pressure on the pair will resume if the U.S. inflation data is stronger than expected. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and has just begun its decline before selling.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0946 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the next support levels of 1.0927 and 1.0901 can be expected.

Chart Analysis Overview:

• Thin green line: The entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: The projected price where you can set Take Profit or lock in profits manually, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: The entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: The projected price where you can set Take Profit or lock in profits manually, as further declines beyond this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's crucial to consider overbought and oversold areas.

Note: Beginner traders in the forex market should exercise caution when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without using stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit. This risk increases if you do not use proper money management and trade in large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is generally considered a losing strategy for intraday trading.