Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

Testing the 153.90 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, so I decided not to buy the dollar and stayed out of the market, missing a small 20-point upward movement. In the second half of the day, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index data is unlikely to play a significant role in determining the pair's direction. Instead, I will focus on the speeches by Federal Reserve representatives. FOMC members Christopher Waller and Thomas Barkin may adopt a dovish tone, while Neel Kashkari could advocate a more cautious approach to future rate cuts. Regarding intraday strategy, I will rely more on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY near the 154.22 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 154.90 (thicker green line on the chart). At 154.90, I will exit the buy position and immediately take a sell position, targeting a 30-35 point downward movement. A continuation of the current trend suggests further growth today.It is important to ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise before entering a buy trade.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 153.91 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the 154.22 and 154.90 levels is likely.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking below the 153.91 level (red line on the chart), which will likely lead to a sharp decline in the pair. Sellers' key target will be 153.15, where I will exit the sell position and immediately take a buy position, targeting a 20-25 point upward movement. Selling pressure will return if all FOMC representatives adopt a dovish stance.It is important to ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline before entering a sell trade.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 154.22 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline to 153.91 and 153.15 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: The level for entering a buy order.
• Thick green line: The expected price to place a Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: The level for entering a sell order.
• Thick red line: The expected price to place a Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's crucial to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Advice for Beginner Traders:

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize risk. Without them, you risk losing your entire deposit, particularly when trading large volumes without effective money management.
• Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example provided above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions are generally unprofitable for intraday traders.