فاریکس تجزیہ اور جائزے: 28.08.2018

28.08.2018 03:57 AM

The dollar declined, but it did not last long

The speech of Fed Chair J. Powell at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, confirmed that the selected course was during the period of J. Yellen to gradually increase interest rates.

The head of the Central Bank was optimistic about the prospects for further growth of the country's economy, pointing out that "he does not see signals of accelerating inflation much higher than the 2.0% target, as well as the risks of overheating of the US economy." Investors took his words optimistically, despite the fact the continuation of the cycle of raising interest rates in general. It seems that market participants believe that the process of a smooth increase in interest rates gives them the opportunity to "have time" to buy risky assets, making a profit until the moment when rates reach absolute neutral values, which can already be perceived as a signal for large-scale profit-taking.

Investors completely switched to Powell's speech, ignoring the failure of the negotiations between the US and China on customs duties. On other hand, this can be explained by the fact that, very few people in general hoped that they would be positive, and on the other is their influence is already taken into account in market sentiments and quotations. Although Friday was positive, we consider it a temporary phenomenon. Markets will pay attention again to trade wars, and probably, this will push up the US dollar rate again. But at the same time we pay attention to the fact that, the overall lateral dynamics of the dollar paired with major currencies will most likely continue in the short term.

The dollar will be bought for a number of reasons. The first and foremost process is the method of capital transfer to the States from emerging markets and from Europe, where the likelihood of a large-scale financial crisis that raged in Turkey has increased significantly, putting European banks at high risk and investing considerable capital in the country's economy. The next problem is Italy, which can get into the debt "bag" on the background of high public debt. The dollar will also receive support in the wake of the trade war between Washington and Beijing as a currency refuge. And, of course, the Fed's position to smoothly continue, as the process of raising interest rates will be a good incentive for its purchases.

Forecast of the day:

After reaching the local maximum on Friday on the wave of J. Powell's speech, the EUR/USD pair may turn down again if it hover below the 1.1620 level. Against this background, it can adjust to 1.1535 after overcoming the 1.1600 mark.

The AUD/USD pair is trading above the 0.7315 mark. It may continue to adjust down to 0.7255 after overcoming this level. The reason is still the continuing tension between the US and China on customs duties.