فاریکس تجزیہ اور جائزے: 13.02.2019 - Overview of the currency marke...

13.02.2019 02:07 PM

Overview of the currency market on 13.02.2019

In general, as expected almost throughout yesterday, the dollar continued to strengthen its position and extremely sluggish indeed. The head of the Bank of England during his speech has once again spoken about the risks and unpredictable consequences of Brexit for the British economy. That is, we have not heard anything new and precisely because of the fact that market participants have already started to get tired of Mark Carney's speeches of the same nature; his words did not impress anyone. Moreover, everyone is waiting for the speech of Jerome Powell since data on open vacancies in the United States were published, whereas the number increased from 7,166 thousand to 7,335 thousand and the previous data revised from 6,888 thousand. The head of the Federal Reserve System did not say it specifically although he expressed concern about the negative dynamics on the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators. Such statements only reinforce the concerns of market participants that by the end of the year, the Fed may apply some mitigating monetary policy measures. Thus, Jerome Powell's speech is not yet finished as the dollar was confidently losing ground.

Today, an incredible amount of extremely important data is coming out and inflation in the United States is of the greatest interest, which should slow down from 1.9% to 1.5%. In fact, such a significant reduction in inflation will be a confirmation of yesterday's concerns of the head of the Federal Reserve System. Hence, if the forecasts are confirmed and will most likely happen, investors will get an unequivocal answer to the question: what will the Fed do? Obviously, the US Central Bank will look for ways to ease monetary policy and probably through banking regulations. In any case, the dollar will be under heavy pressure.

But all of these will happen in the late afternoon and until that time, market participants are invited to pay attention to European statistics, particularly to industrial production in the eurozone. The European industry itself is experiencing not the best of times, as it is reduced by 3.3% but there is hope that the situation will improve somewhat and new data will show that the slowdown has slowed to 3.2%. Although there is not much difference at least a symbolic improvement in the indicator will not allow the single European currency to lose its positions. Everyone will regain inflation in the United States, which will lead to an increase in the single European currency to 1.1375.

If we talk about the pound, primarily, everyone will be worried about inflation in the UK itself, which is likely to fall from 2.1% to 1.9%. To some extent, this fits into the picture of a general catastrophe, with which Mark Carney diligently draws, and will become another confirmation of the assumption that the Bank of England may soon reduce the refinancing rate or start considering such measures. This will be an excellent reason to reduce the pound just before the publication of inflation in the United States, after which the pound will resume its growth. Thus, in the first half of the day, the pound is expected to decline to 1.2875 and then rise to 1.2950 towards the evening.