Wave counting analysis:

On Thursday, March 7, trading ended for EUR / USD with a decline of 115 bp. Such was the market reaction to the "pigeon" rhetoric of Mario Draghi and the company. The results of the ECB meeting were disappointing. Forecasts for GDP and inflation have been lowered. The launch of the LTRO program, which means new lending to commercial banks, has been announced. Moreover, eurocurrency options simply did not exist and wave counting is now convincing. All 5 waves of the downward trend section are built, and an unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 127.2%, suggests at least a reversal, as a maximum of the end of the trend segment, which has become a triangle.

Sales targets:

1.1184 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.1119 - 161.8% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1419 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair remains within the limits of the expected wave 5. But there is also an option in which the construction of this wave is completed. Thus, I recommend waiting for the breakout level of 127.2% for Fibonacci and only after that, sell the pair with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1119, which corresponds to 161.8% for Fibonacci.