4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 37p - 51p - 31p - 77p - 41p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 47p (53p).

The EUR/USD ends the first trading day of the week with growth, however, at no more than 20 points at the moment. Friday volatility on the instrument fell again, and today, amid the complete absence of any macroeconomic information, there were no reasons for its increase. Thus, it can even be assumed that the pair continues to ascend by inertia. We note that the previous local high has not yet been overcome or updated, although the upward trend in the instrument is maintained and it is recommended to work it out without trying to guess when the next downward reversal will occur. We also do not recommend trying to be proactive and play any news on the EU-US trade war and the US-China trade war. Firstly, it is completely incomprehensible how the two wars will end. There is no information about the trade negotiations between Brussels and Washington. In the case of China, trade duties of 25% have already begun to act, and now the answer is for Beijing, which is unlikely to leave such a step unanswered. Secondly, for the time being it is difficult to say that traders generally react to messages on this topic. And when they begin to react, and whether they will begin at all, and how exactly they will begin to react, it is impossible to predict. During the previous round of the trade conflict with China, the US dollar quietly increased, in spite of everything. However, we can not say for sure that it has appreciated on the news of the trade conflict. Thus, we recommend that you be extremely cautious with opening medium-term and long-term positions, since volatility is low now, and the prospects for the pair are very vague.

Trading recommendations:

EUR/USD resumed its upward movement. Thus, at the beginning of this week, long positions with targets at 1.1268 and 1.1299 are relevant until the MACD indicator moves down, which will indicate a new round of correction.

Sell positions are recommended to be considered only after traders have consolidated below the Kijun-sen critical line with the first goal of a support level of 1.1181.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.