EUR / USD
November 1 ended for the pair EUR / USD with a minimum increase, only by 10 basis points. Thus, the construction of the proposed wave C continues with targets located near the calculated levels of 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci. If the current wave marking is correct, then the instrument will definitely go beyond the peak of wave a. On the other hand, any unsuccessful attempt to break through the Fibonacci level can lead not only to the quotes moving away from the reached highs, but also to the construction of a new donward trend section.
Fundamental component:
The news background on Friday was very strong. Nevertheless, market activity left much to be desired. Markets did not pay attention to those economic reports that were released in America on November 1 and for a good reason since there really was something to pay attention to. Take the report on Nonfarm Payrolls, which is considered the most important indicator of the state of the US economy. The forecast was exceeded by as much as 29K, which would already be enough at any other time for the demand for the US dollar to grow significantly. However, since this was the only report that was on the side of the dollar, the euro still added to the price at the end of the day. Meanwhile, America's unemployment rate rose to 3.6%. Average wages rose by 3.0% y / y, but only by 0.2% m / m. And the index reflecting business activity in the production of ISM was at around 48.3, formally improved compared with August, but in fact continues to indicate a slowdown in America's industry. Thus, a slight increase in the euro is logical. The fact that it was extremely small may indirectly indicate a weakening of market intentions to buy the euro-dollar instrument further.
Purchase goals:
1.1208 - 61.8% Fibonacci
1.1286 - 76.4% Fibonacci
Sales goals:
1.0879 - 0.0% Fibonacci
General conclusions and recommendations:
The euro-dollar pair continues to build a new upward wave set and completed the construction of wave b. I recommend buying the instrument now, as the construction of the rising wave continues. Its goals are located near the estimated levels of 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci, which is equivalent to 1.1208 and 1.1286. A failed attempt to break through any of them may indicate the completion of wave c.
GBP / USD
On November 1, the GBP / USD pair gained 5 basis points. However, it did not reached the level of 127.2% Fibonacci, and now, I expect the instrument to decline in the direction of the level of 100.0% Fibonacci, as the prerequisites and grounds for breaking the level of 127.2 % not available. If wave 3 or C is really completed, then at least three waves down should be built now, two of which are already being traced on the chart. Thus, a decline to the Fibonacci level of 100.0% will indicate the construction of wave c as part of the future 4 . A successful attempt to break through the future at a level of 100.0% will indicate a very probable transition of the instrument to building wave 3 in the future 1 of a new bearish trend section.
Fundamental component:
The news background on Friday for the pound came down to the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, as well as the pre-election comments of representatives of many parties, as well as Boris Johnson himself. The current Prime Minister apologized for not being able to withdraw the country from the European Union, as he had promised earlier. In addition, Johnson also expressed the hope that the new parliament would accept his version of the agreement with the European Union after December 12. At the same time, he will have to fight in the future immediately against two brewing referendums, the very fact of which reflects the best possible lack of any common opinion among the countries that are still part of the United Kingdom. Brexit could be a break in relations not only between the UK and the EU, but also between England and Scotland or, for example, Wales, not to mention Northern Ireland and Ireland, between which a physical border may still appear, which the inhabitants of the island obviously will not like. Scotland, on the other hand, announced its desire to leave the Kingdom once again, through a new referendum on independence. But Johnson has already stated that he will fight this initiative and will not allow it. He will also fight with the Labor Party's initiative to hold a second referendum, which may even end with the cancellation of Brexit. For the British Prime Minister, such a scenario is not acceptable.
Sales goals:
1.2191 - 0.0% Fibonacci
Purchase goals:
1.2986 - 127.2% Fibonacci
1.3202 - 161.8% Fibonacci
General conclusions and recommendations:
The pound / dollar instrument supposedly completed the construction of the upward trend section. Thus, only a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2986 can be regarded as a complication of the alleged wave 3 or C and become the basis for new purchases of the instrument. I recommend looking in the direction of sales after a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2812 (100.0% Fibonacci).
