The EUR / USD pair is once again on a wave of speculative operations, due to which the quote did not only return to the level of 1.1350, but also overcame it locally. This current breakout from the level of 1.1350 is the first movement since the formation of the flat 1.1180 // 1.1250 / 1.1350.
The horizontal move arose from the downward tact within the area of interaction of trade forces 1.1440 / 1.1500, with which prices neared the levels reached on June 10. Returning to the previous levels were actually not possible, but market participants managed to gain a foothold in the form of a range level at 1.1165 // 1.1180 // 1.1190. There, a horizontal course arose, in which the level of 1.1350 was a variable resistance. It led to a breakout from the level of 1.1350, which violates the boundaries of the amplitude but not the general chain. A local surge above the limit 1.1350 could change the mood as quickly as it arose on the market, in which in this case, the level 1.1350 is a variable coordinate, but the main area is the levels 1.1440 / 1.1500, the breakdown of which can lead to a change in the medium-term trend.
Thus, analyzing the trading yesterday in detail, we can see that the main round of long positions, which brought the quote to the level of 1.1350, arose at the start of the American trading session, during which the weakening dollar was felt throughout the Forex market.
It resulted to a volatility of 9%, which is relative to the average daily value of 81 -> 89 points. It also signals the speculative mood in the market.
Analyzing the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), only a slight stagnation is visible relative to the earlier inertial move.
As for news, the reports published yesterday did not have important macroeconomic statistics in Europe and the United States.
But there are other important news such as the speech of the European Parliament, in which German Chancellor Angela Merkel called on the EU countries to show solidarity in overcoming the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.
"Europe will emerge strong from this crisis if we are ready to find common solutions, if we are ready to look at the world through the eyes of others, and if we are ready to demonstrate an understanding of the prospects of others," Merkel said .
Head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, also gave a similar speech, calling on the EU for a united effort in anti-crisis recovery.
"We must learn from the coronavirus crisis, and this time we must do it together. If we do it right, we will also be able to get stronger out of the crisis thanks to a common European goal based on a plan for economic recovery, "she said.
Such are another appeal to EU countries to tighten their bonds and strictly follow the plans of the Bundestag.
Meanwhile, today, the weekly data on the US labor market will be published, which is expected to record a decrease in initial applications for unemployment benefits from 1,427,000 to 1,380,000, and a drop in the repeated applications from 19,290,000 to 19,200,000. It may even support the US dollar into rising, as long as the data comes out better than expected.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we can see another round of speculation, which stopped the upward trend and returned the quote below the level of 1.1350. Thus, the focus now is on short positions, which means that a complete recovery relative to the past day may occur. Work on a wave of speculation, in which the level of 1.1280 plays a variable support.
In addition, short positions will again become relevant, and the signal for action will be a consolidation below the level of 1.1350. Such will lead to a gradual movement along the values 1.1280-1.1250 --- 1.1200.
Meanwhile, an alternative scenario will occur, if the quotes stop at the current values and consolidate higher than 1.1370.
Indicator analysis
Analyzing the different sectors of time frames (TF), we can see that the indicators of technical tools in the hourly and daily periods hold a bullish mood due to the residual signal. Minute intervals, meanwhile, have already changed position from buy to sell.
Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter year
The measurement of volatility measurement reflects the average daily fluctuation calculated by Month / Quarter / Year.
(July 9 was built, taking into account the time the article is published)
The volatility at this current time is 50 points, which is 38% lower than the average daily value. Thus, it is assumed that amid speculative excitement, the market will continue to show activity.
Key levels
Resistance Zones: 1.1350; 1.1440 / 1.1500; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1,2100
Support areas: 1.1250 *; 1.111 **; 1.1080; 1,1000 ***; 1.0850 **; 1.0775 *; 1.0650 (1.0636); 1,0500 ***; 1.0350 **; 1,0000 ***.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** Psychological level
