فاریکس تجزیہ اور جائزے: 28.01.2022

28.01.2022 02:48 PM

Ethereum loses its bullish momentum amid decline of interest in futures: what's next?

Ethereum has been dropping for the past two months due to both fundamental and intra network reasons. A massive correction in the stock and cryptocurrency market has triggered a decline in ETH to $2,100. Moreover, the digital asset is facing problems in the DeFi and NFT sectors. According to a JPMorgan study, a significant increase in fees is forcing users to look for more profitable blockchains.

Despite failures, the asset tried to correct the situation. However, a bullish breakout ended in an unsuccessful retest attempt of $2,800. Moreover, sellers exerted pressure on bulls. Therefore, as of January 28, the altcoin is trading around $2,400. The cryptocurrency has declined by 16% on falling trading volumes over the last 7 days. The situation on the futures market has also had an impact on the price as open interest in ETH fell by 50% to $6.8 billion. The decline is dramatic even amid general outflow of funds from the cryptocurrency industry. All these factors indicate the complete dominance of bears in the major altcoin market.

Retailers, selling crypto at a loss, exert the main pressure on the price. Long-term holders continue to accumulate altcoin. Santiment experts report that whales have bought more than 200,000 ETH in the past week, indicating the asset's prominent future. Ethereum is in the initial stage of consolidation as it failed to break the level of $2,800. Sellers' positions are more stable. Therefore, the price could not break this level immediately.

The main target of Ethereum for February will be the end of the consolidation period and further bullish breakdown of the level of $2,800. The Fibo level of 0.768, as well as a large number of sell orders is at this point. In the near future, the asset will make another attempt to break this level. The bulls are accumulating volumes and competing with sellers, as evidenced by the tentative candlesticks of the last 5 days. The cryptocurrency is settled at the strong support area around $2,300. However, the probability of its breakout increases with every failed retest of $2,800. I assume that the next two weeks the asset will make systematic and sharp movements in the range of $2,100-$2,800. At the same time, it will collect liquidity for a successful exit upwards. There are no volumes for the exit beyond this area at the moment.

Technical indicators do not show any clear signals and keep sideways movement direction. It signals an accumulation and stabilization of the price in the current range. Despite the general uncertainty, the stochastic oscillator shows a bearish signal and forms a downward crossover. The RSI index has left the bullish zone and is declining towards the level of 30. These signals are characteristic of a flat price movement and indicate a constant shift in dominance from bulls to bears and back again.

Overall, the situation with Ethereum is similar to that of bitcoin. Investors are focused on stock markets.However, the results of the Fed meeting are already known, and therefore the redistribution of assets will soon begin again. Therefore, the range of $2,100-$2,800 will be common for Ethereum in the near future, and the main impulses to growth should be discovered in the stock market and bitcoin quotations. At the end of January, ETH has no chance to make an upward movement contrary to the general sentiment on the market.