For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave markup continues to look very convincing and does not require any additions. The increase in the quotes of the British over the past week by all indications is a wave of d in E, and it may be nearing its completion or has already been completed. In total, there should be five waves inside the wave E, respectively, as in the case of the euro/dollar instrument, the downward trend section can continue its construction. At the moment, the British quotes have made an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which may mean the completion of wave d. If this assumption is correct, then the decline in quotes will continue with targets located around the 27th figure within the wave e in E. I note that there are enough reasons for wave E to take an even more extended form. Or the entire downward section of the trend has taken a more extended form. It will depend on how bad the news background will be for the Briton. I have almost no doubt that the recent decline in the pound lies exclusively in the plane of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. And this conflict is not over.
The market has not decided on a trading strategy today
The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument decreased by 15 basis points during March 24. Almost all day, the instrument has been rising and falling, which indicates that the market has not made a single decision. Economic statistics from the UK and the USA contributed to this situation. There were a lot of reports today, but they did not interest the market too much and were not the most important. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Britain fell to 55.5, and the index of business activity in the service sector rose to 61.0. In America, the volume of orders for durable goods decreased by 2.2% m/m in February, but the total number of applications for unemployment benefits also decreased to 1,350 thousand. On both sides, therefore, there was one strong report and one weak one. This explains the fact that today demand has not grown for either the dollar or the pound.
Of course, a lot now depends on the development of the conflict in Ukraine. There is no important news on this topic right now, but there is a lot of just news. The G-7 and NATO security summits will be held in the European Union today and tomorrow, during which decisions on new military assistance to Ukraine will probably be made. Moscow has repeatedly warned that with its help, the West is only fueling the conflict in Ukraine, and not helping to end it peacefully. The Kremlin also stated that any provision of assistance to Kyiv could be regarded as interference in the conflict, and a retaliatory strike would follow immediately. Therefore, today both instruments (euro/dollar and pound/dollar) were in a wait-and-see position. Tomorrow, it will be known how both summits ended, and new information will be received that will allow us to look at the balance of power in a new way. But now there are no hopes for a speedy and peaceful end to the conflict.
General conclusions
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument assumes the construction of a wave E. I continue to advise selling the instrument with targets located near the 1.2676 mark, which corresponds to 100.0% Fibonacci, according to the MACD signals "down", since the wave does E not look complete yet. I propose to consider the expected wave d in E completed until the instrument makes a successful attempt to break through the 1.3273 mark, which equates to 61.8% Fibonacci.
At the higher scale, wave D looks complete, but the entire downward section of the trend does not. Therefore, in the coming weeks, I expect the decline of the instrument to continue with targets well below the low of wave C. Wave E should take a five-wave form, so I expect to see the quotes of the British near the 27th figure.
