Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair, by and large, continued to trade in the horizontal channel on Friday, which is shown in the chart above. The pair left this horizontal channel on Wednesday and Thursday, so it is somewhat formal at this time. However, one should take into account the fact that this "exit" was due to the Federal Reserve meeting and its development. It is quite possible that if there had been no meeting, the pair would have continued to trade within the channel. Thus, we propose to consider that the pair has been in a flat for six trading days, which is located near 5-year lows. That is, the pair is trading sideways at the very "bottom" of the downward trend, which is still preserved, since for all this time we have not seen a tangible upward correction. Therefore, now the question is as follows: when will the euro resume to fall? We have already said that the only possible factor for the pair's growth is the absence of a strong correction: the price cannot constantly move in only one direction. But there are many more downside factors. We also note that on Friday the market actually ignored macroeconomic statistics from America. There was at least one important report - NonFarm Payrolls - the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector. Their number was 428,000, which in itself is a high value, and besides this, it was above the forecast. However, the dollar failed to show new growth due to this report.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The technical picture on the 5-minute timeframe looks very good. Only two trading signals were formed during the day, both of which are not false, which is just fine for a flat. The pair has been in the horizontal channel all day between the levels of 1.0490 and 1.0593. That is, volatility remained very high, despite the flat. First, the pair rebounded from the level of 1.0490. It rebounded very accurately, allowing novice traders to open long positions. A few hours later, the price hit the 1.0578-1.0593 area, spent five or six hours around it, and eventually bounced from it, forming a sell signal. This signal should be used to leave long positions and open shorts. Profit on the first deal was about 60 points. It was not possible to make money on the short position, because until the very evening the pair could not really leave the area of 1.0578-1.0593.
How to trade on Monday:
The trend remains downward on the 30-minute timeframe, despite the formed flat. We believe that the pair can resume to fall at any moment, but we draw your attention to the fact that the euro has been falling for quite a long time and a correction will begin sooner or later. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0369, 1.0471-1.0490, 1.0578-1.0593, 1.0636, 1.0697. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. There will be no important reports and events in the European Union on Monday. In the US, only a speech by a member of the Fed's Monetary Committee, Rafael Bostic, will take place. However, volatility has been very high in recent weeks. Most likely, it will decrease, but hardly to "zero" values.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
