The wave pattern for the GBP/USD pair remains quite complex and ambiguous. For some time, the wave structure looked quite convincing and suggested a downward set of waves with targets below the 23rd figure. However, in practice, the demand for the US currency increased too much for this scenario to materialize.

At present, the wave pattern has become entirely unreadable. I remind you that in my analysis, I strive to use simple structures, as complex ones have too many nuances and ambiguous points. Currently, we see an upward wave that overrode a downward one, which overrode the previous upward wave, which overrode the previous downward one. The only assumption is an expanding triangle with the upper point around the 30th figure and the balance line around the 26th figure. Last week, the upper line of the triangle was reached, and the unsuccessful attempt to break through it indicates the market's readiness to build a downward set of waves.

The pound is ready to fall, but it needs help

The GBP/USD exchange rate did not change on Monday. The movement amplitude was again quite weak, and there was no news background. The most important point now is the unsuccessful attempt to break through the upper line of the expanding triangle, from which the formation of a downward set of waves may begin. I have repeatedly stated recently that a strong rise in the pound is not a logical scenario. Based on this, I expect a new downward section of the trend. It may take much time to build it. The last upward wave was constructed over three months. The next downward wave may take even longer. Consequently, even reaching the 26th figure, the pair may decline for about a month, as market activity remains extremely weak. On days like today, no movement should be expected at all.

This week, we will learn how much the US economy grew in the second quarter, and this is a very dangerous report for the dollar. The market expects growth of no less than 2%, although in the previous quarter, GDP was only 1.4% on a quarterly basis. I do not quite understand why the forecasts for the second quarter are so high, and this factor could once again put pressure on the US currency's positions. If GDP grows less than 2%, it will be a new reason for the market to reduce demand for the dollar. It is difficult to imagine the continuation of the GBP/USD pair's growth, but situations where the impossible becomes reality have repeatedly occurred in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, one must be prepared for anything. However, now is a good time to sell the pound. I believe that the signal around the 30th figure is very convincing.

General Conclusions

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. If a new upward trend section began on April 22nd, it has already acquired a five-wave appearance. Consequently, we should now expect at least a three-wave correction. The unsuccessful attempt to break through the upper line of the triangle indicates the market's readiness to form a downward set of waves. Sales of the pair with targets around 1.2820 and 1.2627, which correspond to 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci, should be considered in the near future.

The wave pattern has transformed at a higher wave scale. Now, we can assume the formation of a complex and extended upward corrective structure. At the moment, it is a three-wave pattern, but it can also transform into a five-wave structure, the construction of which will take several more months or even longer.

Basic Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play out and often change.
2. If one does not have confidence in the market's performance, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Always remember to use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.