Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The first test of the 146.70 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly down from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. Considering the dovish statements from the Bank of Japan and the sharp rise in the dollar during Asian trading today, I utilized a retest of 146.70 when the MACD indicator was in the oversold area. This provided an ideal entry point for buying the pair. As a result, the trade yielded about 40 points of profit. In the second half of the day, we await the report on the volume of consumer credit in the U.S. This gives the dollar a chance to continue its correction, but it will require the presence of large participants. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 147.66 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to the level of 148.72 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.72, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Counting on a strong rise in the pair today is possible, but new dovish rhetoric from the central bank representatives is needed. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the 146.95 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth can be expected to the levels of 147.66 and 148.72.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level of 146.95 (red line on the chart) is updated, leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 145.70, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the case of a failed attempt to break above 147.66 and weak U.S. statistics. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the 147.66 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Decline can be expected to the levels of 146.95 and 145.70.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: Suggested price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: Suggested price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important:

Beginner forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.