Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.0921 level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro and decided to wait for another buying opportunity. Shortly after, the second test of this price coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by just 12 points, and a significant upward movement did not materialize. Data from Germany and the eurozone were disappointing; however, buyers resiliently withstood the pressure. Now, all focus shifts to U.S. statistics and the Producer Price Index report, which is expected to show a decline, potentially weakening the dollar and leading to a rise in the euro. Additionally, there will be a speech by a Federal Reserve representative, which could also support EUR/USD. Regarding intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches the 1.0947 level (the green line on the chart). My target is a rise to the 1.0985 level. At the 1.0985 level, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35 point movement from the entry point. Today's upward movement in the euro can be expected following news of lower inflation in the U.S. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and has just begun to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.0915 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.0947 and 1.0985.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after it reaches the 1.0915 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0876 level, where I plan to exit the market. I will then consider buying the euro for a 20-25 point movement from that level. Pressure on the pair will return if there is an unsuccessful attempt to rise above the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.0947 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.0915 and 1.0876.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: The estimated price where you can set a Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: The estimated price where you can set a Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes:

Beginner traders in the forex market should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without setting stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.