Forex Analysis & Reviews: 30.08.2018 - Global macro overview for...

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30.08.2018 06:02 PM

Global macro overview for 30/08/2018

In the second quarter of 2018, the annualized growth rate of US gross domestic product was 4.2% - results from the revised BEA data. A preliminary reading published a month ago, talked about an increase of 4.1%. In turn, the median estimates of economists were 4.0%.

For the last time, the American economy grew at a rate of over 4.0% in the third quarter of 2014, almost four years ago. At the same time, Americans publish GDP growth on an annualized basis - i.e. multiplying by four increase from the previous quarter. In Europe, the change in GDP in relation to the previous quarter and relative to the corresponding quarter of the previous year is generally reported. Thus, counting "in Europe", the real dynamics of American GDP in the second quarter amounted to 2.9% YoY against 2.6% YoY a quarter earlier.

The main factor driving the growth of US GDP was consumption, which added 2.55 percent points to the annualized dynamics of this indicator. Investments brought 1.07 percentage points, net export 1.17 percentage points, and public expenditure 0.41 percent points. The change in inventories removed from the annualized GDP dynamics as much as 0.97 percent points.

From an investment point of view, these are already very historical data - we are entering the last month of the third quarter. Forecasts for the current quarter are, however, optimistic. The forecast model of the Fed from Atlanta calculates the annualized dynamics of US GDP in the third quarter at 4.6%. If so, then the US Dollar should be appreciated across the board soon.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has found a support at the level of 94.42 and currently is trying to bounce higher towards the technical resistance at the level of 94.93 - 94.98 zone. Please notice the oversold market conditions that support the short-term bullish bias.