empty
28.04.2020 01:41 PM
Oil will check storage facilities

When speculation is added to the huge surplus in the black gold market, shocks become inevitable. The Texas grade fell immediately by 20% in trading on April 27 after S&P GSCI, one of the largest specialized exchange-traded funds in the world working with oil, announced its intention to get rid of June futures contracts for WTI and buy contracts with a more distant execution date instead. However, black gold quickly regained its position, because when everyone sells, there is a great opportunity to buy.

The fall of the Texas variety below zero is an event that will be remembered for many years. It makes investors pay more attention to expiration dates. Few people want to be in the deep red just because all the storage is full. As a result, portfolios are being diversified in favor of contracts with a more distant delivery date. Which, by the way, cost more than the June ones. Super-contango on the oil market proves that Brent and WTI cannot remain at current levels indefinitely. According to research by Goldman Sachs, over the next three weeks, the global market will test the limits of storage capacity. After there is no place to fill the oil, producers will be forced to curtail production at least 20% of the value of global production. The bank estimates a reduction in global demand of 18 million b/d, while a gradual decrease in the surplus will lead to an increase in prices.

The most acute problem of lack of storage is in the United States. According to JP Morgan, in order for the tanks in Cushing not to overflow by 90% or higher, American companies need to produce only 1 million b/d in May and 500 thousand b/d in June. But a few weeks ago, we were talking about the figure of 13 million b/d. The main blow will be taken by Texas, where, according to the Federal Reserve of Dallas, manufacturing activity fell to the level of -55.3, the lowest since the start of accounting in 2004. 59% of company executives said that they are working part-time, 33% said that they are closed.

Dynamics of manufacturing activity in Texas

This image is no longer relevant

In my opinion, the nightmare days for oil will soon be over. Along with a reduction in production in the US and other countries, Brent and WTI will be supported by an exit from the quarantine. This will lead to an increase in global demand for black gold, primarily from China, which will later be joined by other states. This circumstance allows us to look closely at the idea of forming long-term long positions for the North sea variety on the breakout of important resistance levels near $25.75 and $28 per barrel.

Technically, Brent is in the hands of "bears", but the growth of quotes above dynamic resistance in the form of moving averages can seriously change the balance of forces. In this scenario, the probability of working out the Anti-Turtles reversal pattern with the subsequent activation of the "Shark" harmonious trading model will increase.

Brent, the daily chart

This image is no longer relevant

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Parece que é hora de se concentrar no euro e no iene (EUR/USD pode cair, USD/JPY pode subir)

Desde meados do mês, os mercados financeiros têm tentado se recuperar enquanto analisam freneticamente os possíveis desdobramentos da guerra comercial iniciada pelos EUA contra seus maiores parceiros comerciais. O sentimento

Pati Gani 17:02 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 26 de março? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Há poucos eventos macroeconômicos programados para quarta-feira, e apenas um relatório importante é aguardado. O Reino Unido divulgará o que pode parecer um relatório relevante sobre inflação. A inflação continua

Paolo Greco 16:56 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Os mercados não correrão cegamente para o perigo

Donald Trump desferiu um golpe tão forte na globalização que as condições e perspectivas para o futuro mudaram – agora divididas por linhas territoriais. Enquanto os bancos europeus acreditam

Marek Petkovich 16:21 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Donald Trump semeia confusão novamente com comentários sobre tarifas

O presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, causou mais confusão na terça-feira ao anunciar planos para introduzir uma série de isenções em sua ampla proposta de tarifas. O anúncio serviu

Jakub Novak 16:15 2025-03-26 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

O iene japonês continua sob pressão hoje devido a dados econômicos domésticos fracos. Em fevereiro, o principal indicador de inflação do Japão no setor de serviços aumentou 3,0% em relação

Irina Yanina 15:50 2025-03-26 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

O ouro continua a mostrar um tom positivo hoje, mas a convicção por trás do movimento ascendente permanece fraca. A incerteza do mercado, impulsionada pelas tarifas anunciadas por Donald Trump

Irina Yanina 15:11 2025-03-26 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

O par USD/JPY recua do nível psicológico de 151,00, alcançado no início desta terça-feira, embora sem uma pressão de venda significativa. O iene japonês atrai compradores diante dos comentários hawkish

Irina Yanina 20:11 2025-03-25 UTC+2

Visão geral do par EUR/USD - 25 de março: o euro continua a cair em uma correção

O par de moedas EUR/USD apresentou volatilidade relativamente baixa na segunda-feira. No entanto, ao observar o gráfico abaixo, fica claro que a volatilidade não tem sido alta recentemente —

Paolo Greco 17:08 2025-03-25 UTC+2

O mercado virou tudo de cabeça para baixo

Será que o pior já passou? Com o S&P 500 alcançando uma alta de três semanas em meio às ameaças de redução de tarifas por Donald Trump, bancos e empresas

Marek Petkovich 15:15 2025-03-25 UTC+2

No que prestar atenção em 25 de março? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Poucos eventos macroeconômicos estão programados para esta terça-feira, e nenhum deles é de relevância significativa. Na melhor das hipóteses, o relatório sobre o clima de negócios alemão e os dados

Paolo Greco 14:49 2025-03-25 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.