empty
18.02.2022 08:16 PM
US banks fear inflation, asset price deflation and recession

Wall Street's biggest banks sounded a warning over the year ahead on Thursday, citing high inflation, credit concerns, asset price depreciation and companies postponing deals due to market uncertainty.

This image is no longer relevant

Notably, US banks reported mixed profits in the fourth quarter last month as trading revenues fell after the Federal Reserve cut its asset purchases. Morgan Stanley performed best, outperforming investment leader Goldman Sachs.

US banks are now grappling with high inflation and the likelihood of multiple rate hikes. Several top executives commented on market conditions at the Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum in Florida.

Bank of America is concerned enough about inflation to stress test its portfolio for the possibility that Fed policymakers are unable to control it and prevent the country going into recession, Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said. This indicates a redistribution of assets in portfolio investments.

"We have to run those scenarios," he said. "What will hurt the industry generally will be if they have to create a recession. And that's not their goal for sure. They'll hopefully do a great job handling it. We stress test that and we're fine."

Goldman Sachs' Chief Executive David Solomon warned that rampant inflation could be a headwind to growth.

"We're moving from an environment of very easy money and below trend inflation to an environment of tighter money and above trend inflation. The economic environment is different and there will be consequences to that," he said.

Solomon added that "everybody is used to asset appreciation and we might have a period of time where there's less asset appreciation."

Mike Santomassimo, chief financial officer at Wells Fargo & Co, the fourth-largest U.S. bank, noted that credit spreads had been widening and "that's an area to watch to see if there are any cracks that start to emerge".

Indeed, despite the expected rate hike in March, margins have not decreased and borrowers are happily taking out their last loans. For some, it may not be feasible to pay interest or provide additional collateral in the event of property depreciation, which is already in full swing. The crack that Mike is talking about may well prove to be the chasm in which all the market's achievements of the last 14 years disappear.

High inflation and expectations of more aggressive rate hikes from the Fed have whipsawed markets this year, sending the S&P 500 down 7% year-to-date while bond yields have jumped and the yield curve flattened.

Bank shares declined Thursday with the S&P500 banking index down 3%. The S&P 500 was down 2%.

Morgan Stanley Chief Financial Officer Sharon Yeshaya said the bank had seen "a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace over the past couple of weeks" leading to companies putting off transactions. "At this point it doesn't feel like the first quarter of 2022 is going to be the same as the first quarter of 2021," she said.

Trading and investment banking activity had slowed since 2021 but was still healthy, Solomon said.

Bank of America's Moynihan took a similar tone, saying the bank's capital markets business "is down" so far in 2022, even though it continues to see a strong pipeline of customer activity.

Wells' Santomassimo noted that while the bank's consumer and real estate portfolios continue to perform, there had been "a little bit of noise" in auto loans.

However, he said that rising rates would help the bank's ultimate goal to reach a 15% return on tangible equity. When interest rates are higher, banks make more money by taking advantage of the difference between the interest banks pay to customers and the interest they can earn by investing.

"The question will be where rates go and then what impact that has on the economy and the environment we're in," Santomassimo said.

I will say, however, that this situation will upset the delicate equilibrium. At least the banks are certainly not expecting the market surge that we saw a year ago. Indeed, borrowers cannot only borrow. It is probably time to pay the bills.

Egor Danilov,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Egor Danilov
Start trade
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Mercados disparam: Nvidia passa de US$ 4 trilhões em valor, Bitcoin segue firme, Dow e S&P sobem

Índices em alta: Dow Jones sobe 0,43%, S&P 500 sobe 0,27%, Nasdaq sobe 0,09% Nvidia encerra negociações com valorização histórica, ultrapassando US$ 4 trilhões Perspectiva positiva da Delta estimula setores

Thomas Frank 15:53 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Nvidia faz história: mercado em alta, capitalização da empresa ultrapassa a marca de US$ 4 trilhões

Índices em alta: Dow Jones — 0,49%, S&P 500 — 0,61%, Nasdaq — 0,95% A Nvidia é a primeira empresa a atingir US$ 4 trilhões em valor de mercado

Thomas Frank 16:34 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Trump volta à ação: tarifa de 50% sobre o cobre, mais golpes contra a China e a UE

Trump anuncia tarifa de 50% sobre o cobre Anuncia novas tarifas sobre semicondutores e produtos farmacêuticos Presidente Trump afirma que negociações com a UE e a China estão progredindo Japão

Thomas Frank 15:43 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Resumo das notícias do mercado norte-americano de 9 de julho

Os índices de ações dos EUA encerraram o pregão com movimentos modestos: o S&P 500 registrou uma ligeira queda, o Nasdaq 100 apresentou um ganho moderado e o Dow Jones

Ekaterina Kiseleva 14:33 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 8 de julho

O mercado de ações dos EUA mostra um ímpeto contido em meio à incerteza sobre o possível retorno de Donald Trump às altas tarifas. Embora o presidente dos EUA tenha

Ekaterina Kiseleva 17:30 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Tensão comercial: Japão e Coreia do Sul são alvos de tarifas de 25%

Japão e Coreia do Sul enfrentam tarifas de 25% até 1º de agosto Dólar australiano sobe com o RBA mantendo as taxas em espera O índice pan-europeu STOXX 600 (.STOXX)

Thomas Frank 16:37 2025-07-08 UTC+2

&P 500 e Nikkei em Queda com Tensões Comerciais; OPEP+ Pressiona Petróleo, Dólar Reage

S&P 500, Nikkei Futures Fall on Trade Turmoil EUA marcam 1º de agosto como data-limite de tarifas para alguns países Preços do petróleo caem com a OPEP+ aumentando a produção

Thomas Frank 17:33 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 7 de julho

Donald Trump aprovou uma lei que define um novo teto para a dívida federal em US$ 5 trilhões e aumenta os gastos do governo. O documento inclui cortes de impostos

Ekaterina Kiseleva 17:20 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Acordos cancelados, novas cartas - caminhando para o caos comercial? Calendário do trader para 7 a 9 de junho

Simbolicamente, foi justamente no 4 de Julho, Dia da Independência dos EUA, que Donald Trump assinou aquilo que ele mesmo chamou de o "Grande e Belo Projeto de Lei" ("Big

Svetlana Radchenko 17:01 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 4 de julho

Os índices S&P 500 e Nasdaq subiram 0,83% e 1,02%, respectivamente, atingindo novos máximos históricos. No entanto, os futuros do índice recuaram devido a preocupações com a possível introdução

Ekaterina Kiseleva 18:10 2025-07-04 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.