Details of the economic calendar for September 13
Data on the UK labor market came out better than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 3.8% to 3.6%, despite forecasts of maintaining previous level. On the negative side, this is an increase in the number of claims for unemployment benefits by 6,300, while their reduction is forecast by 13,200. The country's employment, meanwhile, grew less than the forecast, by only 40,000.
Despite the negative factors, the decrease in the unemployment rate in the country covers absolutely everything. As a result, the pound sterling received support in the market from buyers.
The main event of the day and the whole week was the inflation data in the United States. Banks, statistical offices and experts expected it to decline to 8.1%, as a result, the consumer price index came out with an indicator of 8.3%—this is a decrease in inflation compared to the previous indicator of 8.5%.
Due to the fact that there was a discrepancy in expectations, the market reacted negatively to inflation data.
The reaction of financial markets
There was a sharp demand for dollar positions on the foreign exchange market due to the fact that high inflation will continue to push the Fed to raise interest rates. After the publication of the data, news began to appear that the regulator should raise the rate by 100 basis points at once during the September meeting. Emotions led to a lot of market speculation in the US dollar.
The stock market collapsed by several percent for the same reason, since tightening monetary policy will not lead to anything good for the stock market.
Overall picture of inflation in the US, (YoY)
June 2021: +5.4%
July: +5.3%
August: +5.3%
September: +5.4%
October: +6.2%
November: +6.8%
December: +7%
January 2022: +7.5%
February: +7.9%
March: +8.5%
April: +8.3%
May: +8.6%
June: +9.1%
July: +8.5%
August: +8.3%
Analysis of trading charts from September 13
The EURUSD currency pair fell over 200 points in the course of speculative operations during the past day. This movement led to the return of quotes below the parity level.
Following the market, the GBPUSD currency pair rushed down, where, during the inertial movement, the quote fell by more than 220 points. In fact, the US dollar has completely regained its positions relative to the recent corrective move.
Economic calendar for September 14
At the opening of the European session, inflation data in the UK were published. Forecasts assumed growth from 10.1% to 10.6%, but instead, there was a decrease in its level to 9.9%. The change is small, but it is a positive factor because the Bank of England at the upcoming meeting may well indicate a slowdown in the rate of inflation increase, which in turn will affect the revision of the rate of increase in the refinancing rate.
In Europe, industrial production data is expected to decline from 2.4% to 1.7%. This is a negative factor for the euro.
During the American trading session, data on the producer price index in the United States will be published, where it is predicted to decline from 9.8% to 8.9%. This is a negative factor for dollar positions if the forecast coincides.
Time targeting:
The volume of industrial production – 09:00 UTC
US producer price index – 12:30 UTC
Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 14
During Asian trading session, there was a technical pullback to parity* (1.0000*). After the start of trading on European markets, the decline resumed. This indicates that the euro oversold technical signal is being ignored by market participants. Thus, the current inertial cycle is still relevant among speculators, which may provoke a further weakening of the euro.
We concretize the above:
The downward move will be relevant after the price holds below 0.9950, this step may lead to an update of the low of the downward trend.
An upward movement in the currency pair is taken into account in the case of a stable holding of the price above the parity level. Under this scenario, growth in the direction of 1.0050–1.0120 is possible.
Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 14
It is a fact that sterling shorts are overheated, but there is still a downside in the market. For this reason, the level of the local low of 2020 (1.1410) is still considered by the sellers as a prospect for this cycle of activity.
For cardinal changes to occur, the quote must stay below the value of 1.1400 in the daily period. In this case, there will be a signal of prolongation of the long-term downward trend.
What is shown in the trading charts?
A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices.
Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market.
Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future.
The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.
