empty
23.07.2024 12:54 AM
The Bank of England might forgo a rate cut on August 1 as the pound gathers strength to rise. Overview of GBP/USD

Last week, a substantial block of macroeconomic data for the UK was released. The Bank of England's meeting, scheduled for August 1, is approaching, and at first glance, the BoE has grounds to consider its first quarter point rate cut from the current 5.25%.

Consumer inflation in June remained unchanged, while overall inflation rose by 2% in annual terms, the same as the previous month, and core inflation increased to 3.5%. Despite both figures meeting forecasts, the market suggests that the chances of a rate cut have diminished, as service sector inflation also remained steady at 5.7%, above the forecast of 5.1%.

This image is no longer relevant

At the same time, retail sales in June fell more sharply than forecast, with a decline of 1.2% compared to a 2.9% increase the previous month.

Since service prices remained consistently high and inflation was unchanged, the markets have downwardly revised the likelihood of a rate cut on August 1 from 50% to 35%. This is a bullish signal for the pound, which rose immediately after the data was released.

On Wednesday, July 24, the PMI indices for July will be released, serving as key data points before the BoE's imminent decision. All PMI indices are expected to show growth, confirming overall economic expansion. If the data aligns with forecasts, it will be another bullish factor for the pound, as it would allow the BoE to justify not cutting rates on August 1. Regardless, any potential rate cut is already priced in by the market, while a decision not to cut rates would allow the pound to resume its upward trend towards the annual high.

According to the CFTC report, the net GBP long position increased by $4 billion to $10.777 billion over the reporting week. Major speculators' positions in the pound are firmly bullish, and the overall net long position is at its highest level since the Brexit vote. Clearly, sentiments have shifted following the elections. The price is above the long-term average and aimed at further growth.

This image is no longer relevant

Last week, the pound reached an annual high of 1.3043 and has a good chance of rising towards 1.3141, which we identified as the main target in the previous review. The continuation of the upward trend was hindered by a global information breakdown last week and Biden's announcement of his withdrawal from the presidential race, both triggering increased demand for safe-haven assets. Nevertheless, the chances for further growth remain high despite the threat of a correction. Our target is 1.3141, with support at 1.2890.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Os dados do índice PCE provavelmente não terão impacto significativo na dinâmica do mercado (potencial para crescimento renovado do EUR/USD e do Bitcoin)

O alívio das tensões nos mercados, após a pausa no conflito militar no Oriente Médio, favorece o retorno ao paradigma anterior — maior demanda por ações e criptomoedas, enfraquecimento

Pati Gani 16:44 2025-06-27 UTC+2

A inflação no Canadá continua muito alta - USD/CAD pode acelerar sua queda

A inflação no Canadá continua alta demais para se esperar um corte nas taxas pelo Banco do Canadá em sua próxima reunião. Em abril, a inflação desacelerou acentuadamente para 1,7%

Kuvat Raharjo 16:37 2025-06-27 UTC+2

O iene perdeu seu ímpeto de alta

Em junho, o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC) na região de Tóquio registrou uma queda de 3,4% para 3,1% em relação ao ano anterior, marcando o primeiro sinal

Kuvat Raharjo 16:36 2025-06-27 UTC+2

O mercado está descontrolado

A ganância voltou aos mercados. Enquanto profissionais alertam para a necessidade de cautela em meio à incerteza geopolítica, às guerras comerciais e à situação econômica dos EUA, os investidores

Marek Petkovich 16:22 2025-06-27 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

O ouro voltou a atrair interesse de venda hoje, após romper abaixo do nível-chave de US$ 3.300. Os traders aguardam a divulgação do Índice de Preços de Despesas de Consumo

Irina Yanina 16:01 2025-06-27 UTC+2

EUR/JPY. Análise e previsão

O par EUR/JPY está recuperando o ímpeto positivo durante o pregão de hoje, revertendo sua recente queda. O euro continua se beneficiando do sentimento predominante de venda do dólar americano

Irina Yanina 14:13 2025-06-27 UTC+2

O iene está de volta ao jogo

O iene fracassou no teste como moeda porto-seguro. O conflito entre Israel e Irã provocou uma correção no USD/JPY, alinhando-se a uma tendência de baixa. Durante boa parte

Marek Petkovich 21:09 2025-06-26 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise, previsão e situação atual do mercado

A demanda intradiária pelo iene japonês continua firme, acompanhada por uma fraqueza generalizada do dólar americano, o que contribui para a queda do par USD/JPY. As expectativas crescentes

Irina Yanina 20:05 2025-06-26 UTC+2

O dólar enfrenta resistência e incertezas

Os mercados estavam preparados para um cessar-fogo no Oriente Médio — mas estarão prontos para o retorno das guerras comerciais? Os investidores passaram a acreditar na manutenção de uma tarifa

Marek Petkovich 18:11 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção no dia 26 de junho? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Há poucos relatórios macroeconômicos agendados para esta quinta-feira, e o mercado tem mostrado, ao longo da semana, uma clara intenção de manter a tendência de alta que já dura cinco

Paolo Greco 17:58 2025-06-26 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.