Analysis of trades and tips on USD/JPY
The first price test of 150.72 occurred when the MACD indicator was in the overbought area, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. Weak U.S. data and another price test at 150.72 led to the implementation of scenario #2 for selling. As a result, USD/JPY dropped more than 80 pips. Today, the dollar may remain under pressure, but one must act cautiously when selling at lows. It's best to wait for the release of U.S. labor market data and, upon confirming the presence of major players, continue to build short positions. If we do not see active sales around the weekly low, the pair will have a good chance for a correction at the end of the week. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy signals
Scenario No. 1. Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the entry point around 149.64, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to the level of 150.79 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. Around 150.79, I will exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on the pair to rise today. At most, we might see a correction in the first half of the day. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 148.85 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 149.64 and 150.79.
Sell signals
Scenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 148.85 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.79, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return at any moment, especially if the price fails to consolidate near the intraday high. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive price tests at 149.64 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels, 148.85 and 147.79.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
