Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the European Currency
The test of the price at 1.0930 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero line, which clearly limited the pair's downward potential, especially considering its recent upward trend. For this reason, I did not sell the euro and stayed out of the market. Given that pressure on the pair remains, it is unlikely that American statistics will seriously change anything, but in the absence of sellers after their release, the euro may have a chance for a correction in the second half of the day. Figures on the U.S. trade balance and the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index, generally considered uninteresting, are expected ahead. Weak data – a chance for a euro correction. For the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal:
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when it reaches the price in the area of 1.0921 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.0953. At point 1.0953, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Weak U.S. data today can be expected to cause a small upward movement of the euro. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting its rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0902 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0921 and 1.0953 can be expected.
Sell Signal:
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0902 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0874, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the case of strong statistics. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting its decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0921 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.0902 and 1.0874 can be expected.
Chart:
Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
Thick green line – presumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
Thick red line – presumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the zones of overbought and oversold.
Important: For beginner traders in the forex market, it is necessary to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp fluctuations in exchange rates. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for day traders.
