empty
11.04.2019 03:02 PM
Gold: modesty is the sister of talent

Gold managed to capitalize on US intentions to impose $ 11.2 billion in import duties against the European Union for illegal subsidies for Airbus, as well as from the results of the ECB meeting and the contents of the March FOMC minutes protocol. Fears of the European Central Bank about the further slowing of the eurozone economy and the Fed's readiness to keep the federal funds rate at 2.5%, at least until the end of 2019, contributed to a fall in bond yields in the Old and New World. In the face of declining borrowing costs, the precious metal usually feels very confident due to the increase in its share in investment portfolios.

Gold that lacks bullish forecasts is still modest. Societe Generale believes that as the probability of a recession in the US economy grows in 2020. The demand for precious metals will increase and predicts that its average price in the first quarter of next year will be $1,400 per ounce. But for the whole of 2020, it is around the same figure, says TD Securities. As the main "bullish" drivers for the XAU/USD pair, the company cites growing demand from China for a physical asset and the gradual elimination of long positions in the US dollar. In March, the Celestial Empire acquired the next 11.2 tons of gold and increases reserves to 1,885 tons. Over the past 4 months, these increased by 42 tons. In 2018, the central banks led by Russia and Kazakhstan actively bought precious metals and the fact that they were joined by China in 2019.

The slowdown in the US economy and the Fed's intention to keep the federal funds rate, at 2.5% at least until the end of 2019, is forcing large banks to change their forecasts for US Treasury yields. Thus, HSBC lowered its estimate for 10-year securities from 2.5% to 2.1% at the end of the year. The lower the yield falls then the greater the chances of gold to continue the rally. In this regard, the fall in German debt rates after the ECB meeting, as well as the release of US inflation data for March and the publication of the FOMC meeting minutes played into the hands of the XAU/USD bulls.

Dynamics of gold and yield of US Treasury bonds

This image is no longer relevant

In my opinion, gold could rise higher if it was not for the strong position of the US dollar but more precisely, if not for the weakness of the euro. The share of the single European currency in the structure of the USD index is 57%, hence, the sluggish dynamics of the eurozone economy has a positive effect on the US currency and restrains the offensive outburst of precious metal fans. If the situation in China and in the eurozone begins to improve, buyers of EUR/USD and XAU/USD pairs will extract dividends. For this, it is necessary that the situation with Brexit be clarified and Donald Trump did not start another trade war but this time with the EU.

Technically, a breakthrough of resistance levels at $1313 and $1322 per ounce with a simultaneous release of gold futures quotes beyond the descending short-term trading channel will increase the risk of activating the harmonious trading "Crab" pattern. Its target for 161.8% corresponds to $1389.

Gold daily chart

This image is no longer relevant

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

El Bitcoin se ha perdido en el mismo lugar

Donald Trump prometió convertir a América en la cripto capital del mundo, casi organizar un paraíso para los entusiastas del mundo cripto. Sin embargo, en la práctica ha confundido tanto

Marek Petkovich 13:53 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 5 de mayo. Reuniones del Banco de Inglaterra y la Fed.

El par de divisas GBP/USD tampoco logró ni subir ni bajar durante el día. Muchos expertos interpretaron los datos laborales y de desempleo de EE.UU. como positivos, simplemente porque

Paolo Greco 08:09 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. 5 de mayo. Nueva semana de sufrimiento para el dólar.

El par EUR/USD el viernes en general se mantuvo en su nivel. Durante el día se observó tanto subida como caída. Para el dólar es una suerte el hecho

Paolo Greco 08:09 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 2 de mayo. La divisa estadounidense subió por poco tiempo

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó cayendo durante el jueves. El dólar fortaleció sus posiciones durante tres días consecutivos, para lo cual objetivamente no había ninguna razón. El contexto macroeconómico

Paolo Greco 07:32 2025-05-02 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 2 de mayo. Al dólar le espera un nuevo colapso. Y no será el último.

El par de divisas EUR/USD volvió a negociarse el jueves con bastante calma, pero esta vez la divisa estadounidense ya no logró mostrar un fuerte crecimiento. Lo bueno, en pequeñas

Paolo Greco 07:32 2025-05-02 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 30 de abril. El mayor misterio de 2025 ha sido revelado.

El par EUR/USD continuó negociándose el martes dentro de un rango limitado con una volatilidad bastante baja. En realidad, 80 puntos por día para el euro es un valor

Paolo Greco 07:32 2025-04-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 30 de abril. La democracia ficticia de EE.UU. y el impeachment a Trump.

El par GBP/USD se corrigió ligeramente a la baja después de subir el lunes sin motivo aparente. Sin embargo, llamar a este movimiento mínimo hacia abajo un «crecimiento del dólar»

Paolo Greco 07:32 2025-04-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Negociación en rango a la espera de informes importantes

El par EUR/USD lleva ya dos semanas consecutivas operando dentro de la figura 13 (con avances puntuales hacia la figura 14), reaccionando a todos los eventos fundamentales dentro del rango

Irina Manzenko 13:09 2025-04-29 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 29 de abril. ¿Son importantes los datos de desempleo y del mercado laboral?

El par de divisas GBP/USD también se negoció el lunes con baja volatilidad y prácticamente en una dirección lateral, aunque la libra esterlina mantiene una ligera inclinación alcista. A pesar

Paolo Greco 07:40 2025-04-29 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 29 de abril. Los débiles se rinden, los fuertes resisten.

El par de divisas EUR/USD el lunes permaneció inmóvil. No hubo noticias de Donald Trump sobre disputas comerciales durante el fin de semana, y para el propio lunes

Paolo Greco 07:40 2025-04-29 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.