Forex Analysis & Reviews: 05.07.2019 - The forecast for EUR / USD...

05.07.2019 09:21 AM

The forecast for EUR / USD and GBP / USD for July 5. NonFarm Forecast

EUR / USD - 4H.

After the EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart has completed a fall to the correction level of 50.0% - 1.1278, all trades pass along this level. Divergences on July 5 are not observed including hints on the rebound / breakdown too. Thus, traders have no choice but to wait for any impulse that will force them to start active trading again. Yesterday, such a push did not wait. Today, chances are there will be more. In America today, there are reports on unemployment, changes in wages and changes in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector. The only question is which of the currencies will support this news. In recent weeks, the US dollar has not received any support from economic news from America. However, even so, there is not so much lost against the euro. Today, if the news turns out to be weak again, then the correction level of 50% may remain as an insurmountable obstacle for the pair. The main attention of the market will be focused on NonFarm Payrolls. The forecast value of which is quite high, 164K, so the probability of its exceeding the real figure is small. This means that traders can expect the growth of the euro-dollar pair in the US trading session today.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from March 20, 2019 and May 23, 2019.

Forecast for EUR / USD and trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has completed the fall to a correction level of 50.0% - 1.1278. I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.1238, with a Stop Loss level above the level of 1.1278, if the closing is completed below the 50.0% level. I recommend buying a pair with the goal of 1.1318, if a new rebound from the Fibo level of 50.0% is performed, and with a Stop Loss level of 1.1278.

GBP / USD - 4H.

The GBP / USD currency pair consolidated under the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.2661, but the decline in quotations has currently paused or, better yet, stopped since Independence Day was celebrated in America yesterday. Now, traders need to re-enter the market perhaps in the US when three important reports will be released at once. In the UK today, nothing interesting will happen. The Brexit theme continues to hang "sword of Damocles" over the pound sterling and over the entire country, but the debate on this issue has now subsided. The main thing now is to choose a new Conservative leader and the Prime Minister of the country, but the debate on this issue has now subsided. These two events will not be system-forming for Brexit; however, Brexit itself will not move forward until the elections are carried out. Unfortunately, waiting for the end of the election will occur for another three weeks, while the pound sterling is still not in demand among traders. There is not a single factor that would cause the desire to buy English currency. Perhaps today, economic reports from America will be weak, which will allow the pound to grow a little, but even in this case, no one expects a strong increase in the currency of England.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from January 3, 2019 and March 13, 2019.

GBP / USD - 1H.

On the hourly chart, the pound-dollar pair has completed a decline to the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.2571 and had a rebound from it. Fixing quotes below the correction level of 76.4% will work in favor of a further fall in the direction of the next Fibo level 100.0% - 1.2506. Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator. The trend movement is missing as such.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremums from June 18, 2019 and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for GBP / USD and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair completed the fall to the Fibo level of 76.4%. I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.2506, with a Stop Loss level above 1.2571, if the closing is completed below 76.4%. I recommend buying the pair with targets 1.2612 and 1.2644, if the rebound from the Fibo level of 76.4% is executed, and with the Stop Loss level under 1.2571 (hourly chart).

You have already liked this post today

*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.