empty
11.01.2022 11:47 PM
Paralyzed dollar gives euro false hopes

This image is no longer relevant

The euro never managed to break out of the range, although there were plenty of reasons to move in the market. The EUR/USD pair has been standing in one place for too long, and considering that the New Year holidays are behind us, and there are many interesting events ahead, the long-awaited breakthrough is about to happen. The question is when and in which direction.

The Federal Reserve is extremely hawkish, the futures market is set for almost a four-time rate hike this year. In theory, this should have strengthened the dollar, but it did not.

The US stock market has felt the strongest pressure. The tightening of the Fed's policy automatically makes money more expensive, which is negative for funding investments in stocks. The bond market also got it – the refusal to buy bonds on the balance sheet indicates a decrease in demand for these securities, therefore, in order to balance the market, the yield had to increase. If at the end of last year the yield was at 1.50%, then at the beginning it jumped to 1.80%. Both stocks and US bonds are falling in price due to the tightening of monetary policy, and this development is not to the liking of the US dollar.

However, so far it has not shown any obvious signs in this direction, and the EUR/USD pair is trading sideways. In the week from Tuesday to Thursday, the Treasury should place a new series of bonds. The demand for securities is falling, if, on top of everything else, the dollar starts - the demand for bonds will be under even greater pressure. With this development, yields may well jump to 2%.

Does the US Treasury need this, especially now that the department has begun to actively build up debt after raising the national debt limit. The dollar had many reasons to move, and the fact that it is still standing cannot be called an accident.

As you know, the longer the market stands still, the stronger the movement will be later. The tension is growing, the feet are accumulating, and on both sides, and then there is a sharp and very strong push in one of the sides. The main thing is not to be deceived, that is, not to run into a false exit from the range.

Nonfarm could well serve to exit the EUR/USD pair range. Yes, there has been progress, but this is not the same at all. Theoretically, the next important event that can erase the boundaries of the range may be American inflation. There is no need to try to guess how investors will react to a new batch of data, because it is almost unrealistic.

The most painless solution in this case is a wait–and-see attitude. As long as the EUR/USD pair is trading below the 1.1400 mark, the risk of a short-term decline in the quotation to the 1.1100–1.1000 marks will remain. At the moment, given the whole picture on the market, it is difficult to imagine the beginning of a trend for a decline in the dollar.

This image is no longer relevant

Resistance is noted at 1.1360, 1.1380 and 1.1400. Support is located at 1.1315, 1.1300 and 1.1280.

Today's focus is on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech. Investors will seize every word and look for any indication of the timing of the start of rate hikes and the likelihood of using quantitative tightening (QT) to ease price pressure. If the Fed chairman continues to adhere to a straight hawkish attitude, it will be possible to see the strengthening of the dollar again. A scenario in which Powell chooses to show caution will play against the greenback, and it will be difficult for him to attract bulls.

Natalya Andreeva,
Experto analítico de InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Tormenta bursátil: Nvidia se dispara, el Dow cae y el tribunal anula los aranceles de Trump

Las acciones de Nvidia subieron un 5% tras el cierre; las acciones de Dick's Sporting Goods aumentaron tras superar las expectativas del primer trimestre El tribunal de comercio

11:01 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Juicio contra Trump: los aranceles fueron declarados ilegales. ¿Qué significa todo esto para los mercados?

Un fallo judicial inesperado y toda la arquitectura de la política arancelaria de Donald Trump comenzó a desmoronarse como un castillo de naipes. El Tribunal de Comercio Internacional

Аlena Ivannitskaya 11:00 2025-05-29 UTC+2

«El efecto Nvidia»: ¿aguantarán los mercados la última ola de presión?

Los resultados de Nvidia se publicarán el miércoles, los últimos de los ingresos de los "Magnificent 7". Donald Trump y los mercados europeos han vuelto al punto de partida

11:08 2025-05-26 UTC+2

La tecnología en auge: Snowflake y Alphabet brillan mientras cae el sector solar

Dow y S&P 500 terminaron la jornada sin cambios, mientras que el Nasdaq subió un 0,28%. Snowflake se disparó. Alphabet alcanzó su nivel más alto en casi tres meses

11:26 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Israel, Irán y el barril del miedo: el petróleo vuelve a subir

Durante la sesión asiática del miércoles por la mañana, el petróleo subió repentinamente un 1,5% gracias a las noticias procedentes de Oriente Medio. Las sospechas de un posible ataque

Natalia Andreeva 11:03 2025-05-21 UTC+2

El Bitcoin no teme los problemas de calificación crediticia de EE. UU. y sigue apuntando al alza. Los índices S&P 500 y Nasdaq100 también

La primera criptomoneda intenta mantener un nivel alto, aunque no siempre lo consigue. No obstante, el Bitcoin casi se ha consolidado en una posición de liderazgo, a pesar

Larisa Kolesnikova 11:03 2025-05-21 UTC+2

El dólar sin futuro: la venta masiva apenas comienza

Hasta hace poco, el dólar parecía intocable: el ancla mundial, el refugio monetario, la última palabra en confianza global. Pero hoy cada vez se escucha más otra retórica: sobrevaloración, agotamiento

Аlena Ivannitskaya 08:22 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Bitcoin: qué esperar esta semana. ¿Se mantendrá el récord con la subida hasta los $107 000?

A la primera criptomoneda le toca mantener sus posiciones, aunque a veces le resulta difícil. En este momento, el BTC ha salido adelante, por lo que la tarea de conservar

Larisa Kolesnikova 14:34 2025-05-19 UTC+2

El consumidor estadounidense pierde impulso: lo que dicen Target y Lowe's

En la próxima semana, Wall Street centrará su atención en los informes de las principales cadenas minoristas de EE. UU., que ayudarán a evaluar cómo afectan a la economía

12:39 2025-05-19 UTC+2

STOXX 600 alcanza nuevas cimas: ¿hacia dónde se dirige el crecimiento y qué les espera a los inversores?

Cisco sube tras la mejora de previsiones para el ejercicio fiscal UnitedHealth cae por un informe que menciona una investigación penal El índice europeo STOXX 600 apunta a su quinta

12:47 2025-05-16 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.