The results of the last Federal Reserve meeting have once again raised hopes for dollar bulls. It strengthened sharply last Thursday after the US central bank raised the interest rate by 0.50% on Wednesday, however, this was expected, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the central bank "has not yet reached a sufficiently restrictive policy level," and "the FOMC is highly attentive to inflation risks". Fed officials also revised their forecasts for the peak interest rate. Now, at the end of 2023, they assume an increase to 5.1% instead of 4.6% announced in September.
The general conclusion that can be drawn from the results of the December Fed meeting is that the interest rate in the US will continue to rise, at least to the level of 5.1% (by the end of 2023), but much will also depend on the current situation in the economy, the labor market and the dynamics of inflation. If it continues to decline steadily, the rate of interest rate increases will also slow down. "Our decisions will depend on the totality of incoming data," said Powell.
Time will tell how long the dollar will strengthen after the last Fed meeting, but during Friday's Asian trading session, dollar bears tried to take control of the situation, and the dollar was declining.
Anyway, the dollar remains under pressure for the time being, and its DXY index is at levels corresponding to the levels of July-August, below the notorious and so much promised earlier about its steadfastness to many economists and market participants at 105.00.
Take note that last week, three more of the world's largest central banks (Switzerland, the eurozone, the UK) held their meetings and raised their interest rates, as well as the Fed, by 0.50%, which helped to smooth out the sharp corners in the dynamics of these currencies, maintaining the same differentiation in the interest rates of these key world central banks. banks.
The next week will probably be the last more or less active trading before the celebration of the New Year. Next Friday, the Catholic world will be preparing for Christmas celebrations. However, important macro data on the US, Canada, and the UK will also be published next week, and the central banks of China and Japan will hold their meetings on monetary policy issues.
Monday, December 19th
We don't expect any important macro data. However, it is worth paying attention to reports from Germany. Among other data - a report from the German IFO Institute with an assessment of the current situation in the German economy and indicators of economic expectations and business optimism. A drop in indicators is expected here, which is likely to have a negative impact on euro quotes.
Tuesday, December 20th
Australia. Minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia
This document, which is a detailed report on the last management meeting of the RBA, gives an idea of the economic conditions that influenced its decision on the level of interest rates.
If the RBA positively assesses the state of the labor market in the country, the GDP growth rate, and also shows a hawkish attitude towards the inflation forecast in the economy, the markets regard this as a higher probability of a rate hike at the next meeting, which is a positive factor for the AUD. The soft rhetoric of the statements of the bank's managers regarding, first of all, inflation will put pressure on the AUD.
"The Board's priority is to re-establish low inflation and return inflation to the 2-3 percent range over time" said central bank governor Philip Lowe. "The Board expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead,".
Economists have raised their forecasts for tightening the policy of the RBA amid a very tense labor market in the country and an increased level of savings. If the minutes contains unexpected or additional information concerning the issues of the RBA's monetary policy, then the volatility in AUD quotes will increase.
The level of influence on the markets is from low to high.
China. The People's Bank of China's decision on the interest rate
The level of interest rates is the most important factor in assessing the value of a currency. Investors look at most other economic indicators only to predict how rates will change in the future. Since the Chinese economy is, according to various estimates, the first in the world (at the moment), Chinese macro data and decisions of the country's monetary authorities can have a great impact on the financial market and investor sentiment, especially on the markets of the Asia-Pacific region.
It is expected that at this meeting, the PBOC will keep the interest rate at the same level of 3.65%, although unexpected decisions are not excluded. If the PBOC makes unexpected statements or decisions, then volatility may increase in the entire financial market. Investors will also be interested in the Bank's assessment of the effects of coronavirus on the Chinese economy and its policy in the near future, in this regard.
The level of influence on the markets of the final assessment is from low to high.
Japan. The Bank of Japan's decision on the interest rate. BOJ Press Conference and Monetary Policy Commentary
The level of interest rates is the most important factor in assessing the value of a currency. Investors look at most other economic indicators only to predict how rates will change in the future.
The BOJ is pursuing an extra soft monetary policy, keeping the main interest rate in negative territory. Most likely, the rate will remain at the same level of -0.1%. When the interest rate decision is announced, volatility in the yen quotes and in the Asian financial market may increase sharply if the BOJ makes an unexpected decision.
During the press conference, BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda will give comments on the Bank's monetary policy. As Kuroda has stated many times before, "it is appropriate for Japan to patiently stick to powerful monetary easing"
The level of influence on the markets is high.
Japan. BOJ Press Conference
During the press conference, Kuroda will give comments on the Bank's monetary policy. Markets usually react noticeably to Kuroda's speeches, especially if he touches on the topic of monetary policy. If he does not touch on this issue, then the reaction to his speech will be weak.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
Canada. Retail Sales report
The Retail Sales report is the main indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for most of the total economic activity, and is published monthly by Statistics Canada. The index is considered an indicator of consumer confidence, also reflecting the state of the retail sector in the near future. An increase in the index is usually a positive factor for CAD; a decrease in the indicator will have a negative impact on CAD. Previous values of the indicator: -0.5%, +0.7%, -2.5%, 1.1%, 2.2%, 0.7%, 0.2%, 3.3% ( in January 2022).
Forecast for October: -0.3% (+0.8% in annual terms).
The level of influence on the markets is from medium to high.
New Zealand. Dairy Trade Price index
This leading indicator of the country's foreign trade balance reflects the weighted average price of 9 dairy products sold at an auction organized by Global Dairy Trade (GDT) in percentage terms and is usually published every 2 weeks.
The economy of New Zealand in many respects still has signs of raw materials, and the main share of New Zealand exports is dairy products and food products of animal origin (27%, according to data for 2020). Therefore, the decline in world prices for dairy products has a negative impact on NZD quotes, as it signals a decrease in export revenue coming to the budget of New Zealand.
Conversely, the growth of the dairy product price index has a positive effect on the NZD.
Previous values: +2.4%, -3.9%, -4.6%, +2.0%, +4.9%, -2.9%, -5.0%, -4.1%, -1.3%, +1.5%, -2.9%, -8.5%, -3.6%, -1.0%, -0.9%.
The level of influence on the markets is from low to medium.
Wednesday, December 21st
Canada. Basic Consumer Price Index
The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) from the Bank of Canada reflects the dynamics of retail prices (excluding fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transport and tobacco products) and is a key indicator of inflation. Consumer prices account for most of the overall inflation. The assessment of the inflation rate is important for the management of the central bank when determining the parameters of the current monetary policy.
Given that the inflation target for the Bank of Canada is in the range of 1%-3%, the growth of the indicator (CPI and Core CPI) above this range is a harbinger of a rate hike and a positive factor for CAD.
If the expected data turns out to be worse than the previous values, this will negatively affect the CAD. The data will strengthen the Canadian dollar better than the previous values.
Previous values of the indicator (in annual terms): 5.8%, 6.0%, 5.8%, 6.1%, 6.2%, 6.1%, 5.7%, 5.5%, 4.8%, 4.3%, 4.0%, 3.6%. The data indicate a still high level of inflation.
Forecast for November: 6.4% (in annual terms).
The level of influence on the markets is high.
USA. Consumer Confidence
A Conference Board report with the results of a survey of about 3,000 American households, during which respondents are asked to assess the level of current and future economic conditions and the overall economic situation in the United States. The confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country and in the stability of their economic situation is the leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for most of the total economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence indicates economic growth, while a low level indicates stagnation. The previous value of the indicator is 100.2. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the USD, and a decrease in the value will weaken the dollar.
The level of influence on the markets is from medium to high.
Thursday, December 22
Great Britain. GDP
The UK Office for National Statistics will publish a report with final data on the country's GDP for the 3rd quarter. There are 2 versions of the quarterly GDP published with an interval of about 45 days, Preliminary and Final (final release). The pre-release is the earliest and therefore tends to have the greatest impact on the markets. This report reflects general economic indicators and has a significant impact on the decision of the Bank of England on monetary policy issues.
GDP growth means an improvement in economic conditions, which makes it possible (with a corresponding increase in inflation) to tighten monetary policy, which, in turn, usually has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency.
This report usually causes an increase in volatility in GBP quotes. Data worse than the forecast/previous values will negatively affect the GBP quotes.
Previous values: +0.2%, +0.8%, +1.3%, +1.0%, +5.5%, -1.6% ( in the 1st quarter of 2021).
Forecast: -0.2% (preliminary estimate was: -0.2%).
The level of influence on the markets (final release) is average.
USA. Annual GDP for the 3rd quarter (final estimate). The main index of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE price index). Applications for unemployment benefits
This indicator (GDP) is the main indicator of the state of the American economy, and along with data on the labor market and inflation, GDP data are key for the central bank of the country in determining the parameters of its monetary policy.
A strong result strengthens the US dollar; a weak GDP report negatively affects the US dollar.
There are 3 versions of GDP released at monthly intervals - Preliminary, Updated and Final. The pre-release is the earliest and has the greatest impact on the market. The final release has less impact, especially if it coincides with the forecast.
Previous values of the indicator (in annual terms): -0.6%, -1.6%, +6.9%, +2.3%, +6.7%, +6.3% (in the 1st quarter of 2021).
Forecast for the 3rd quarter of 2022 (final estimate): +2.9%.
(the preliminary estimate was +2.6%, the second +2.9%, and the forecast +2.0%).
The level of influence on the markets (final release) is average.
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (or Core PCE Price Index, Core PCE) is the main inflation indicator that Fed FOMC officials use as the main inflation indicator.
The level of inflation (in addition to the state of the labor market and GDP) is important for the Fed in determining the parameters of its monetary policy. Rising prices are putting pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.
The values of the price index (PCE) exceeding the forecast may push the US dollar up, as this will hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed's forecasts, and vice versa.
Previous values: +4.7% (in the 2nd quarter of 2022), +5.2% (in the 1st quarter of 2022), 5.0% (in the 4th quarter of 2021), +4.6% (in the 3rd quarter), +6.1% (in the 2nd quarter), +2.7% (in the 1st quarter of 2021).
Forecast for the 3rd quarter of 2022 (final estimate): +4.6%.
(the preliminary estimate was +4.5%, and the second +4.6%).
The level of influence on the markets (final release) is average.
Also at the same time, the US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the state of the US labor market with data on the number of primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits. The state of the labor market (together with data on GDP and inflation) is a key indicator for the Fed in determining the parameters of its monetary policy.
The result is higher than expected and the growth of the indicator indicates the weakness of the labor market, which negatively affects the US dollar. The drop in the indicator and its low value is a sign of the recovery of the labor market and may have a short-term positive impact on the USD.
It is expected that the number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits will remain at lows corresponding to the lows of the period before the coronavirus pandemic, and this is also a positive factor for the dollar, indicating the stability of the US labor market.
Previous (weekly) values according to data on initial applications for unemployment benefits: 211,000, 231,000, 226,000, 241,000, 223,000, 226,000, 217,000, 214,000, 226,000, 219,000, 190,000, 209,000, 208,000, 218,000, 228,000, 237,000, 245,000.
Previous (weekly) values according to repeated applications for unemployment benefits: 1,671,000, 1,670,000, 1,609,000, 1,551,000, 1,503,000, 1,494,000, 1,438,000, 1,383,000, 1,364,000, 1,365,000, 1,346,000, 1,376,000, 1,401,000, 1,401,000, 1,437,000, 1,412,000..
The level of influence on the markets is from medium to high.
Japan. Minutes of the BOJ Monetary Policy Committee meeting
This document, which is a detailed report on the last meeting of the BOJ, gives an idea of the economic conditions that influenced its decision on the parameters of the current monetary policy.
If the BOJ is positive on the labor market, GDP growth rate and is hawkish on the inflation outlook for the economy, markets see this as a possibility of a rate hike at the next meeting, which is positive for JPY. Soft rhetoric on inflation will weigh on JPY.
The BOJ continues to adhere to its ultra-soft monetary policy. As Kuroda has stated many times before, "it is appropriate for Japan to patiently continue the current soft monetary policy."
If the minutes contains unexpected or additional information concerning the monetary policy of the BOJ, the volatility in the quotes of the JPY will increase.
The level of influence on the markets is from low to high.
Friday, December 23
USA. PCE Price Index. Durable Goods Orders. Capital Goods Orders (excluding aircraft and defense)
The annual Core PCE Price Index (excluding volatile food and energy prices) is the main inflation indicator that Fed FOMC officials use as the main inflation indicator.
The level of inflation (in addition to the state of the labor market and GDP) is important for the Fed in determining the parameters of its monetary policy. Rising prices are putting pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.
The values of the base price index (PCE) exceeding the forecast may push the US dollar up, as this will hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed's forecasts, and vice versa.
Previous values: +5.0% (in annual terms), +5.1%, +4.9%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.9%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.2% ( in January 2022).
Forecast for December: +0.4% (+4.6% in annual terms).
The level of influence on the markets is from medium to high.
Durable goods are defined as solid products with an expected service life of more than 3 years, such as cars, computers, household appliances, airplanes and imply large investments in their production.
This leading indicator determines the change in the total cost of new orders for the supply of durable goods placed with manufacturers. Growing orders for the supply of this category of goods signal that manufacturers will increase their activity as orders are fulfilled.
Capital goods are durable goods used for the production of durable goods and services. Goods produced in the defense and aviation sectors of the American economy are not included in this indicator.
A high result strengthens the USD, a decrease in the indicator has a negative effect on the USD. Data worse than the previous value and/or forecast will also have a negative impact on dollar quotes, while data better than the forecast will have a positive impact on the dollar.
Previous values of the "durable goods orders" indicator: +1.1% in October, +0.4% in September, -0.2% in August, -0.1% in July, +2.2% in June, +0.8% in May, +0.4% in April, +0.6% in March, -1.7% in February, +1.6% in January.
Previous values of the indicator "orders for capital goods excluding defense and aviation": +0.6% in October, -0.4% in September, +1.3% in August, +0.3% in July, +0.9% in June, +0.6% in May, +0.3% in April, +1.1% in in March, -0.3% in February, +1.3% in January.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
Canada. GDP
Statistics Canada will publish a monthly report on GDP, which is the broadest indicator of economic activity and the main indicator of the state of the economy. High GDP figures will have a positive impact on CAD quotes, and, conversely, a weak GDP report will have a negative impact on CAD.
Despite the possible relative decline, the data indicate the continued recovery of the Canadian economy after its severe decline in early 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic (in the 1st quarter of 2020, Canada's GDP decreased by -8.6%, and in the 2nd - by -44.2%). Better than forecast data will also have a positive impact on CAD.
Previous values: +0.1%, +0.3%, +0.1%, +0.1%, 0%, +0.3%, +0.7%, +0.9%, +0.2% ( in January 2022).
Forecast for October: +0.1%.
The level of influence on the markets is from low to medium.
USA. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final release)
This index is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for most of the total economic activity. It also reflects the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. A high level indicates economic growth, while a low level indicates stagnation. Data worse than the previous values and/or forecast may negatively affect the dollar in the short term. The growth of the indicator will strengthen the USD.
Previous values of the indicator: 56.8, 59.9, 58.6, 58.2, 51.5, 50.0, 58.4, 65.2, 59.4, 62.8, 67.2 in January 2022.
The preliminary estimate was: 59.1.
The level of influence on the markets (final release) is average.
