empty
21.06.2023 12:41 PM
Gold: Will consolidation be ending soon?

The fewer clouds gather in the sky of the U.S. economy, the worse it is for gold. The precious metal continues to trade in a narrow range and awaits cues from Jerome Powell. Gold is ready to react sensitively to the words of the Fed Chairman, but in reality, monetary policy will depend on incoming data. And the current statistics suggest that the risks of a decline in XAU/USD quotes appear higher than the likelihood of their growth.

There is ample evidence that the U.S. economy is improving, not worsening. The leading indicator GDPNow from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta signals that GDP will grow by 2% in the second quarter, which is much higher than the expected contraction of the economy forecasted by Bloomberg experts in April. Preliminary data from the University of Michigan indicate improving consumer sentiment and slowing inflation expectations. Even the real estate market, which is very sensitive to interest rates, shows signs of life.

A soft landing looms on the horizon, and that's bad news for gold. The main drivers of its rally in 2022–2023 were the armed conflict in Ukraine, fears of a recession and inflation, as well as tense relations between the U.S. and China. And while geopolitics has not lost its power, slowing prices and decreasing the likelihood of a downturn make the "bullish" positions on XAU/USD vulnerable.

However, there are plenty of optimists in the market. According to Bloomberg Economics, the most aggressive tightening of the Fed's monetary policy will trigger a deep recession in the second half of 2023. As a result, gold will not only break through $2,000 but also soar to a new record of $3,000 per ounce. Central bank activity and physical demand will support it.

Unfortunately, for now, in my opinion, such a scenario seems unreal. Yes, central banks made record purchases of precious metals in 2022, totaling 1,136 tons. However, in the first quarter, the figure dropped to a modest 228 tons. Against the backdrop of China's slower-than-expected economic recovery, the activity of retail gold sellers is declining.

Dynamics of retail gold sales in China

This image is no longer relevant

Without support from the physical asset market, "bulls" on XAU/USD will struggle to cope with the Fed's aggressive "hawkish" rhetoric, especially since the dynamics of ETF holdings leave much to be desired.

This image is no longer relevant

Strong macroeconomic statistics from the United States will continue to hit the precious metal. It will convince investors of the economy's resilience and allow the Fed to do what it forecasts: raise the federal funds rate by a total of 50 basis points in two FOMC meetings this year. Fears that Jerome Powell will appear before Congress in "hawkish" suit are troubling the "bulls" on XAU/USD.

Technically, the daily chart of gold still shows the pattern of Spike and Ledge. The sentiment remains "bearish" as the quotes are below the moving averages. In such a situation, selling opportunities will arise either with a breakout of the lower boundary of the consolidation range at $1,930–$1,970 per ounce or a rebound from the EMA near $1,950 and $1,956.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

El Bitcoin se convierte en víctima de estafadores

La confianza en el mundo financiero no solo puede perderla el dólar estadounidense. La información sobre el robo de datos de aproximadamente 197 mil clientes de Coinbase, la mayor plataforma

Marek Petkovich 14:05 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 19 de mayo. ¿Qué esperar de la inflación en EE. UU.?

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó el viernes su movimiento lateral, que ya se observa desde hace un mes. En principio, en la ilustración del marco temporal de 4 horas

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 19 de mayo. La guerra comercial frena al dólar.

El par de divisas EUR/USD se negoció con caídas mínimas durante la jornada del viernes, con una volatilidad en general a la baja tras un «abril loco» La divisa estadounidense

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-05-19 UTC+2

EUR/USD. En la trampa del rango lateral

El par euro-dólar sigue cotizando dentro de un rango estrecho, reaccionando de forma débil a acontecimientos fundamentales importantes. Por tercer día consecutivo, los compradores de EUR/USD intentan volver

Irina Manzenko 12:47 2025-05-16 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 15 de mayo. El calvario del dólar continúa.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su crecimiento el miércoles, que había comenzado el martes. Recordemos que el martes el mercado no tenía ninguna razón de peso para deshacerse masivamente

Paolo Greco 07:30 2025-05-15 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. 15 de mayo. La fe del mercado en el dólar está por el suelo.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó su recuperación durante el miércoles en un contexto de calendario macroeconómico absolutamente vacío. Ni siquiera destacamos el único informe del día sobre la inflación

Paolo Greco 07:30 2025-05-15 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 14 de mayo. Solo importa el tratado comercial.

El lunes, la moneda estadounidense se fortaleció considerablemente tras el éxito en la primera ronda de negociaciones entre EE. UU. y China, aunque, en esencia, ambas partes solo acordaron

Paolo Greco 07:22 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 14 de mayo. La música no duró mucho.

El par de divisas EUR/USD estuvo prácticamente todo el martes en una tendencia alcista. Uno se acostumbra rápido a lo bueno, y el mercado claramente esperaba una continuación del fortalecimiento

Paolo Greco 07:22 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. 13 de mayo. La libra esterlina recibió un golpe bajo

El par de divisas GBP/USD también cayó rápida y alegremente el lunes. EE. UU., representado por el Secretario del Tesoro Scott Bessent, anunció el primer avance en las negociaciones

Paolo Greco 07:22 2025-05-13 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 13 de mayo. EE. UU. y China llegaron inesperadamente a un acuerdo.

El par de divisas EUR/USD cayó el lunes como una piedra. ¿Adivinan a quién hay que agradecerle esto? Por supuesto, a Donald Trump. Aunque esta vez, solo de forma indirecta

Paolo Greco 07:22 2025-05-13 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.