Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
Due to the extremely low volatility of the euro and the complete absence of significant fundamental statistics from the Eurozone in the first half of the day, there were no trading opportunities. The levels I had outlined were not tested, so there were no clear entry points into the market. A considerable amount of data is set to be released during the U.S. session. This will start with the U.S. retail sales figures, which will play a key role in dollar pricing today, and will conclude with data on initial jobless claims, the Empire Manufacturing Index, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and changes in industrial production. Don't forget about the interview with FOMC member Patrick T. Harker, known for his dovish stance, which could create additional problems for the dollar if the fundamental statistics disappoint. For the intraday strategy, I plan to follow either Scenario No. 1 or Scenario No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1020 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1052. At the 1.1052 level, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 points from the entry point. The euro's upward movement today can be expected after news of declining U.S. retail sales. Note: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1000 price level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise to the resistance levels of 1.1020 and 1.1052 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I will sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1000 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0971, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 points back up from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if the attempt to rise above the daily high fails, paired with news of rising retail sales. Note: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1020 price level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline to the support levels of 1.1000 and 1.0971 can be expected.
Chart Explanation:
- Thin green line: The entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
- Thick green line: The projected price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: The entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
- Thick red line: The projected price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are generally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
