Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The 144.82 price level was tested when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the dollar. However, as you can see on the chart, the anticipated major upward movement did not materialize, leading to a loss on the trade. In the afternoon, only a strong report on initial jobless claims and an upward revision of US GDP for Q2 are likely to trigger new dollar purchases. Otherwise, the yen will continue to be in demand, potentially leading to a significant drop in the USD/JPY pair, which could be further influenced by FOMC member Raphael Bostic's soft statements regarding future Fed policy. For the intraday strategy, I plan to base my actions on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches around 144.74 (green line on the chart), with a target rise to 145.55 (thicker green line on the chart). At 145.55, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from this level). A rise in the pair today can only be expected after very strong U.S. statistics. It's important to ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement from it before buying.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 144.47 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 144.74 and 145.55.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 144.47 level is tested (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 143.76 level, where I will exit the sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from this level). Selling pressure will return if the pair fails to rise above the daily high. It's important to ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement from it before selling.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 144.74 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 144.47 and 143.76.

Chart Indicators:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Target price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Target price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginners in the forex market need to be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit. This is particularly true if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making unplanned trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.