Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 145.99 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly down from the zero mark, which limited the pair's further downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. As you can see on the chart, after a minor decline, pressure on the dollar eased, so staying out of the market was the right decision. Ahead, we have U.S. manufacturing data, specifically the manufacturing activity index and the ISM manufacturing index. Strong data would indicate a strong dollar and a new wave of growth for the pair. If the data disappoint, which seems more likely, USD/JPY could drop further. For the intraday strategy, I plan to rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches around 146.15 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 146.68 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 146.68, I will exit the buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35 point movement from the level. An increase in the pair can be expected today after strong U.S. data. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 145.80 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. We can expect a rise to the target levels of 146.15 and 146.68.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price updates to the 145.80 level (red line on the chart), which will likely lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 145.24 level, where I will exit the sell positions and immediately open buy positions, targeting a 20-25 point movement from the level. Sellers will show their strength if U.S. statistics are poor. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 146.15 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. We can expect a drop to the target levels of 145.80 and 145.24.

On the Chart:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where you can set a Take Profit or manually take profit, as further rise above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where you can set a Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are trading large volumes without proper money management.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.