empty
04.09.2024 12:28 PM
GBP/USD. September 4. Bearish Traders Concerned About Payroll Report

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued a weak decline towards the retracement level of 127.2% – 1.3054, which began after rebounding from the 1.3258 level. The intensity of the bearish traders' actions suggests the market's strong demand for the dollar. A rebound from the 1.3054 level will favor the pound and lead to some growth towards the 1.3258 level. A break beneath the 1.3054 level will increase the likelihood of a further drop towards the next level at 1.2931. A break below the upward trend channel would marginally improve the dollar's prospects.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure raises no concerns. The last completed downward wave failed to break below the low of the previous wave, while the last upward wave managed to break the peak of the previous one. Therefore, we are currently in a clear bullish trend, although the waves are so large that identifying a potential trend reversal will require considerable time. I do not see any internal wave structures to rely on for a trend reversal.

On Tuesday, the fundamental data provided little support for the dollar. One business activity index was relatively positive, while the other was negative. As a result, the dollar gained 30 points during the day, but that's not significant. Today's focus is on the JOLTS report, which is not expected to trigger a significant market move. However, there are no other major data or events at the moment. The market is cautious about selling the pair since it does not expect the Bank of England to cut rates in September but eagerly anticipates monetary easing from the Federal Reserve at all three remaining meetings in 2024. Therefore, if the U.S. labor market and unemployment data later this week do not dissuade the market from these expectations, the pair's decline may not last long. Currently, the dollar lacks sufficient fundamental support to sustain its rise.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the 1.3044 level. However, the CCI indicator had been signaling a "bearish" divergence for over a week, and the RSI indicator had been in overbought territory for a week, which is uncommon. As a result, a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar occurred, and the pair started to fall toward the 1.3044 level. A rebound from this level may lead to a renewed rise toward the retracement level of 76.4% at 1.3314.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

The sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders became significantly more bullish during the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 26,529, while the number of short positions rose by 4,109. Bulls still hold a strong advantage. The gap between long and short positions is nearly 90,000: 152,000 vs. 62,000.

In my opinion, the British pound still has downward potential, but the COT reports currently suggest otherwise. Over the last three months, the number of long positions has increased from 51,000 to 152,000, while short positions have decreased from 74,000 to 62,000. I believe that, over time, professional players will begin to unwind long positions or increase short positions, as the factors supporting the pound have already played out. However, this is purely speculative. Technical analysis suggests a likely decline in the near future, but the clear bullish trend remains intact for now.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

  • UK – Services PMI (08:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – JOLTS Job Openings (14:00 UTC)

On Wednesday, the economic calendar includes two significant releases. The fundamental backdrop may influence market sentiment, particularly in the second half of the day.

Forecast for GBP/USD and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.3258 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3054. These trades can still be held. I would not rush to buy until the 1.3054 level is tested.

Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted between 1.2892 and 1.2298 on the hourly chart and between 1.4248 and 1.0404 on the 4-hour chart.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Grigory Sokolov
Start trade
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Depósito al azar
    ¡Haga un depósito en su cuenta de $3,000 y obtenga $4000 más!
    ¡En Julio, sorteamos $4000 dentro de la campaña Depósito afortunado!
    Obtenga la oportunidad de ganar depositando $3,000 en una cuenta de operaciones. Tras haber cumplido esta condición, se convertirá en un participante de la campaña.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin. El fortalecimiento del dólar podría dar un giro bajista al mercado de criptomonedas

Hoy, el mercado se centrará en la publicación del informe sobre la inflación en Estados Unidos, que se espera que muestre no solo que ha dejado de bajar, sino

Pati Gani 13:12 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Bitcoin. El logro de nuevos máximos puede detenerse

El precio del Bitcoin superó momentáneamente el nuevo nivel histórico de 111 000, pero no logró consolidarse por encima de él. El apoyo proviene, tanto para él como para

Pati Gani 10:53 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD. El 12 de mayo. El conflicto en Ucrania podría llegar a su fin.

Buenos días, estimados traders. El par EUR/USD el viernes subió hacia la zona de resistencia 1,1265 – 1,1282, rebotó desde allí y giró a favor del dólar estadounidense. El proceso

Samir Klishi 10:27 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el gas al 8 de abril de 2025

Gas natural (NG) Ni al final de la semana pasada, ni mucho menos al comienzo de la actual, la cotización del gas natural logró superar la resistencia de 4.200, reforzada

Laurie Bailey 08:11 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.