empty
11.09.2024 12:24 PM
GBP/USD. September 11th. The British Economy is Not Growing.

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline toward the 127.2% corrective level at 1.3054 on Tuesday. A rebound from this level gives traders hope for a reversal in favor of the pound and some growth toward the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3259. However, I doubt the bulls can drive the pair back up to this level. Consolidation below 1.3054 will increase the likelihood of a further decline toward the 1.2931 level.

This image is no longer relevant

There are no questions regarding the wave structure. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, but the most recent upward wave also failed to break the previous peak at 1.3264. Therefore, we are now witnessing a downward trend reversal. The most recent, still incomplete, downward wave has broken the previous wave's low, further confirming the formation of a bearish trend.

The news background on Tuesday did not help the bulls much, and today it has been of no help at all. While yesterday's reports from the UK could be considered positive, as both unemployment fell and the number of unemployment claims was lower than expected, today's GDP showed no growth, and industrial production declined by 0.8%. Traders had anticipated 0.2% growth for GDP in July and a 0.3% increase in industrial production. In both cases, they were disappointed. However, even these figures demonstrate how little interest the market currently has in economic data, particularly from the UK. Yesterday, relatively good data pushed the pound up by just 30 pips, while today's poor data caused a drop of only 20 pips, showing how little the market reacts to UK data. Thus, the market clearly indicates that it is focused on the U.S. inflation report, the Federal Reserve meeting, and Jerome Powell's speech, rather than routine economic data from the UK.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair retraced to the 1.3044 level. A rebound from this level, combined with a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator, suggests the possibility of some growth for the pair, but I don't expect it to be significant. I anticipate more consolidation below the 1.3044 level, which will pave the way for further decline toward the next corrective level of 61.8% – 1.2745.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

The sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders has become much more bullish over the past week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 8,610 units, while short contracts decreased by 9,537 units. The bulls still have a solid advantage. The gap between the number of long and short positions is 108,000: 160,000 long versus 52,000 short.

In my opinion, the pound still has the potential for a decline, but the COT reports currently suggest otherwise. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has risen from 102,000 to 160,000, while the number of short positions has decreased from 58,000 to 52,000. I believe that over time, professional players will start to reduce their long positions or increase short positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been priced in. However, this is merely speculation. Technical analysis suggests a likely decline in the near future, but a clear bullish trend remains for now.

News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

  • UK – GDP change for July (06-00 UTC).
  • UK – Industrial production change (06-00 UTC).
  • U.S. – Consumer Price Index (12-30 UTC).

On Wednesday, the economic calendar contains three important reports, two of which have already been released. The influence of the news background on market sentiment will be strong throughout the rest of the day.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trader recommendations:

Selling the pair was possible after the rebound from the 1.3258 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3054. The target has been reached, as expected. New sales should be considered after a close below 1.3054 with a target of 1.2931. I wouldn't rush into buying, even if there is a rebound from the 1.3054 level.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.2892 to 1.2298 on the hourly chart and from 1.4248 to 1.0404 on the 4-hour chart.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Nasdaq 100. Se esperan nuevos máximos históricos

La toma de posesión hoy de Donald Trump marcará el inicio del segundo mandato de su presidencia, acompañado de promesas de reforzar la posición de EE. UU. en la escena

Anna Zotova 10:00 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Bitcoin – análisis técnico de la situación

El año pasado los principales logros y ventajas estuvieron del lado de los compradores. El año 2024 les trajo un nuevo máximo histórico (108362,36), superando el máximo anterior registrado

Evangelos Poulakis 06:55 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Análisis técnico para la semana del 16 al 21 de diciembre, del par de divisas GBP/USD.

La semana pasada, el par, moviéndose hacia abajo, rompió el nivel de retroceso del 14,6% – 1,2624 (línea de puntos azul), cerrando la vela semanal en 1,2618. Durante la próxima

Stefan Doll 09:17 2024-12-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. 10 de diciembre. Los toros agotaron su potencial.

Buenos días, estimados traders. El par EUR/USD el lunes realizó un rebote desde el nivel de corrección del 323,6% – 1,0532, una ligera subida y un regreso al nivel 1,0532

Samir Klishi 11:31 2024-12-10 UTC+2

GBP/USD. 10 de diciembre. La libra está estancada y esperando la inflación estadounidense

Buenos días, estimados traders. En el marco temporal de una hora, el par GBP/USD el lunes volvió a la zona de resistencia 1,2788–1,2801, rebotó desde ella, giró a favor

Samir Klishi 11:31 2024-12-10 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el par EUR/USD del 24 de junio de 2024

EUR/USD La caída del euro del viernes no fue grande, pero sí cualitativa: los índices bursátiles, las materias primas y los metales preciosos bajaron junto con él. El par EUR/USD

Laurie Bailey 09:00 2024-06-24 UTC+2

Pronóstico del par GBP/USD para el 24 de junio de 2024

GBP/USD La libra esterlina bajó 13 pips el viernes. Se detuvo en la línea Kruzenshtern de la escala diaria. Esta mañana el precio se está consolidando en esta línea, probablemente

Laurie Bailey 08:53 2024-06-24 UTC+2

Pronóstico del par USD/JPY para el 24 de junio de 2024

USD/JPY El viernes, el dólar repitió el carácter impulsivo de la subida del jueves, saltando 86 pips. El nivel objetivo de 160,40 ya está cerca, y supera el máximo

Laurie Bailey 08:40 2024-06-24 UTC+2

Análisis técnico para la semana, del 20 al 25 de mayo, par de divisas GBP/USD

La semana pasada el par subió, rompió el nivel de retroceso del 23,6%, 1,2690 (línea de puntos azul) y subió, cerrando la vela semanal en 1,2697. En la próxima semana

Stefan Doll 10:32 2024-05-20 UTC+2

Análisis técnico para la semana, del 20 al 25 de mayo, par de divisas EUR/USD

La semana pasada, el par se movió al alza, probó el nivel de retroceso del 76,4%, 1,0891 (línea de puntos roja), bajó un poco y cerró la vela semanal

Stefan Doll 10:32 2024-05-20 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.