empty
19.11.2024 03:41 AM
Overview of EUR/USD Pair on November 19: A Calm Start to the Week

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD pair mainly remained stagnant throughout Monday. This is unsurprising since no macroeconomic events except European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech were scheduled for the day. However, as anticipated, Lagarde delivered no significant or impactful statements. Lagarde has made several public appearances recently, offering no new insights for the market. The latest ECB meeting occurred not long ago, so any shift in sentiment or rhetoric from ECB representatives would require fresh data.

With no substantial news to drive the market, EUR/USD maintained its downtrend, and we expect further declines. This could mark the beginning of a new leg in the global bearish trend. A quick look at the weekly timeframe reveals that the pair's upward movement over the past two years has merely been a correction. Since there are no indications that the long-term bearish trend has ended, a significant and prolonged decline remains plausible.

And there are still a considerable number of fundamental reasons for this. The most crucial factor is the market working through the entire cycle of easing the Fed's monetary policy. The second most important factor is the market's complete ignoring of the ECB's monetary policy easing in 2024. The third factor is the illogical rise of the euro in 2024, which requires balancing the pair's exchange rate. The fourth factor is Donald Trump's rise to power, under which inflation in the United States may be higher, requiring a more hawkish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The fifth factor is possible trade wars between the United States, the EU, and China. We are not very interested in China, but the EU economy has hardly grown in the last two years, even without trade wars. Therefore, its chances of growth in the coming years are also minimal.

With these factors in play, the U.S. dollar maintains a strong advantage over its competitors. This explains why bullish divergences and oversold indicators have failed to work, and the dollar continues to strengthen. Corrections can occur unpredictably, but the price currently struggles to consolidate above the moving average, limiting the potential for meaningful corrections.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair over the last five trading days as of November 19 is 78 pips, characterized as "medium." We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.0507 and 1.0663 on Tuesday. The higher linear regression channel points downward, confirming the global bearish trend. The CCI indicator entered oversold territory, warning about the beginning of a new round of correction, but the round of correction turned out to be weak and has already been completed. A new bullish divergence is forming, yet the price remains below the moving average.

Support Levels:

S1: 1.0498

S2: 1.0376

S3: 1.0254

Resistance Levels:

R1: 1.0620

R2: 1.0742

R3: 1.0864

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downtrend, which aligns with our medium-term bearish outlook. We believe that the market has already priced in most, if not all, future Fed rate cuts. As such, the dollar has little reason for a sustained medium-term decline, although there were few before. Short positions can still be considered with a target of 1.0498 if the price remains below the moving average. If you are trading on a "pure" technique, long positions can be considered when positioned above the moving average, with targets at 1.0663 and 1.0742. However, long positions are not recommended under current conditions.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 9 de mayo. El Banco de Inglaterra ha confundido aún más a los traders.

El par de divisas GBP/USD el jueves se negoció primero a la baja y luego al alza, por lo que la conclusión es evidente: el mercado no ha decidido

Paolo Greco 07:45 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 9 de mayo. Powell y la Fed no cambiaron nada.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó negociándose el jueves dentro del mismo canal lateral, claramente visible en el marco temporal de una hora, prácticamente hasta la noche. Tras la reunión

Paolo Greco 07:45 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. 7 de mayo. Trump no recibió la llamada desde China. Tuvo que retroceder.

El martes el par de divisas GBP/USD inició un nuevo ciclo de crecimiento mientras el euro continuaba su flat,. En realidad, el crecimiento comenzó ya el lunes, pero

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 7 de mayo. La reunión de la Fed, como nuevo "dolor de cabeza" para el dólar.

El par EUR/USD continuó moviéndose de manera lateral durante la jornada del martes. Recordemos que el flat general dura ya casi un mes, pero además de eso, el mercado

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 6 de mayo. Trump toma el control de la industria cinematográfica.

El par GBP/USD también se negoció al alza durante la primera mitad del día lunes, y a la baja durante la segunda. Aunque esta vez la moneda estadounidense no perdió

Paolo Greco 07:39 2025-05-06 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. 6 de mayo. La protesta contra Donald Trump continúa.

El par EUR/USD comenzó un nuevo ciclo de crecimiento el lunes. Probablemente, ya nadie se sorprende por otra caída del dólar estadounidense. El mercado comenzó a vender la moneda estadounidense

Paolo Greco 07:39 2025-05-06 UTC+2

El Bitcoin se ha perdido en el mismo lugar

Donald Trump prometió convertir a América en la cripto capital del mundo, casi organizar un paraíso para los entusiastas del mundo cripto. Sin embargo, en la práctica ha confundido tanto

Marek Petkovich 13:53 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 5 de mayo. Reuniones del Banco de Inglaterra y la Fed.

El par de divisas GBP/USD tampoco logró ni subir ni bajar durante el día. Muchos expertos interpretaron los datos laborales y de desempleo de EE.UU. como positivos, simplemente porque

Paolo Greco 08:09 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. 5 de mayo. Nueva semana de sufrimiento para el dólar.

El par EUR/USD el viernes en general se mantuvo en su nivel. Durante el día se observó tanto subida como caída. Para el dólar es una suerte el hecho

Paolo Greco 08:09 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 2 de mayo. La divisa estadounidense subió por poco tiempo

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó cayendo durante el jueves. El dólar fortaleció sus posiciones durante tres días consecutivos, para lo cual objetivamente no había ninguna razón. El contexto macroeconómico

Paolo Greco 07:32 2025-05-02 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.