empty
19.11.2024 03:43 AM
Overview of GBP/USD Pair on November 19: The Pound Teeters Between Life and Death

This image is no longer relevant

The GBP/USD pair showed little inclination for significant movement on Monday, marking a rare calm day in recent months. While the session was relatively uneventful, the British pound's volatility has increased in recent weeks. This is a positive development for intraday traders, as it allows for more profitable trading opportunities based on local signals. When daily price movements are limited to 50 pips, achieving profitability becomes challenging. However, the pair now regularly moves about 100 pips daily.

The outlook for the British pound remains vague. Despite the pair's decline over the past 1.5–2 months, it has been relatively moderate. Many factors contributing to the euro's decline, discussed in the EUR/USD analysis, also apply to the pound. The only exception may be the trade war since the United States and Britain are on friendly terms, and Donald Trump does not believe that the British are using his country for their benefit. However, simultaneously, the British currency has the factor of the Bank of England's slowness.

The BoE is proceeding very cautiously with rate cuts. The central bank anticipates significant inflation acceleration this year and expects inflation to remain above target in 2025. Thus, it is reasonable that the British central bank is slowly lowering the rate. This slow rate-cutting process has helped limit the pound's decline.

The pound may enter freefall if or when the BoE begins cutting rates at every meeting—or signals readiness for more dovish measures. It remains overbought and unjustifiably expensive, with its growth over the past two years being merely a correction within a 16-year-long bearish trend. While every trend eventually ends, the pound's 2024 rally was illogical and failed to reach levels that would indicate the end of the bearish trend.

There is no evidence to suggest that the 16-year trend has concluded. The fundamental background continues to point to the dollar's growth. The British economy is weak and only pretends to grow. The BoE can expect its growth to double next year, but it is not a fact that this will happen. The rate cut would only fuel traders' interest in selling British currency.

From a technical perspective, the pound, like the euro, cannot sustain levels above the moving average. This week, the pound may receive a boost from the UK's inflation report, but the impact remains uncertain as the report's outcome is unknown.

This image is no longer relevant

The average GBP/USD pair volatility for the last five trading days is 97 pips. This value is "average" for the GBP/USD pair. On Tuesday, November 19, we expect movement inside the range bounded by the levels of 1.2564 and 1.2758. The higher linear regression channel has turned downward, which signals a downtrend. The CCI indicator has many bullish divergences and also entered the oversold area several times, but we did not see any corrections.

Support Levels:

S1: 1.2634

S2: 1.2573

Resistance Levels:

R1: 1.2695

R2: 1.2756

R3: 1.2817

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair maintains its downtrend. Long positions are not recommended as the market has already priced the pound's growth factors. If trading is based purely on technical analysis, long positions may be considered above the moving average, with targets at 1.2817 and 1.2878. Short positions are far more relevant, with targets at 1.2573 and 1.2564, as long as the price remains below the moving average.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 14 de mayo. Solo importa el tratado comercial.

El lunes, la moneda estadounidense se fortaleció considerablemente tras el éxito en la primera ronda de negociaciones entre EE. UU. y China, aunque, en esencia, ambas partes solo acordaron

Paolo Greco 07:22 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 14 de mayo. La música no duró mucho.

El par de divisas EUR/USD estuvo prácticamente todo el martes en una tendencia alcista. Uno se acostumbra rápido a lo bueno, y el mercado claramente esperaba una continuación del fortalecimiento

Paolo Greco 07:22 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. 13 de mayo. La libra esterlina recibió un golpe bajo

El par de divisas GBP/USD también cayó rápida y alegremente el lunes. EE. UU., representado por el Secretario del Tesoro Scott Bessent, anunció el primer avance en las negociaciones

Paolo Greco 07:22 2025-05-13 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 13 de mayo. EE. UU. y China llegaron inesperadamente a un acuerdo.

El par de divisas EUR/USD cayó el lunes como una piedra. ¿Adivinan a quién hay que agradecerle esto? Por supuesto, a Donald Trump. Aunque esta vez, solo de forma indirecta

Paolo Greco 07:22 2025-05-13 UTC+2

El Bitcoin ha cumplido el objetivo mínimo

El Bitcoin ha superado la marca de los 100 000, ha entrado en fase de consolidación y así ha confirmado la regla. Anteriormente, tras romper niveles psicológicamente importantes, la criptomoneda

Marek Petkovich 14:49 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 9 de mayo. El Banco de Inglaterra ha confundido aún más a los traders.

El par de divisas GBP/USD el jueves se negoció primero a la baja y luego al alza, por lo que la conclusión es evidente: el mercado no ha decidido

Paolo Greco 07:45 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 9 de mayo. Powell y la Fed no cambiaron nada.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó negociándose el jueves dentro del mismo canal lateral, claramente visible en el marco temporal de una hora, prácticamente hasta la noche. Tras la reunión

Paolo Greco 07:45 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. 7 de mayo. Trump no recibió la llamada desde China. Tuvo que retroceder.

El martes el par de divisas GBP/USD inició un nuevo ciclo de crecimiento mientras el euro continuaba su flat,. En realidad, el crecimiento comenzó ya el lunes, pero

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 7 de mayo. La reunión de la Fed, como nuevo "dolor de cabeza" para el dólar.

El par EUR/USD continuó moviéndose de manera lateral durante la jornada del martes. Recordemos que el flat general dura ya casi un mes, pero además de eso, el mercado

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 6 de mayo. Trump toma el control de la industria cinematográfica.

El par GBP/USD también se negoció al alza durante la primera mitad del día lunes, y a la baja durante la segunda. Aunque esta vez la moneda estadounidense no perdió

Paolo Greco 07:39 2025-05-06 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.