empty
18.03.2025 09:48 AM
No Major Surprises Expected from the Fed Meeting (Anticipating a Sharp Drop in EUR/USD and Continued Cautious Gold Price Growth)

Markets are experiencing turmoil due to the risk of a U.S. economic recession. Although Treasury Secretary Bessent attempts to reassure investors by calling the market "correction" a healthy process, these concerns remain unresolved.

Since the end of last week, major U.S. stock indices have rebounded slightly, recovering part of the decline that began in late February amid Trump's trade wars with neighboring countries, China, and the EU.

What caused this rebound, and could it turn into a full recovery?

Assessing the economic and geopolitical actions of the U.S. administration and President Trump, it is clear that the course set following the elections is unlikely to change. There are many reasons for this, the most significant being the dire financial situation of the U.S., which can no longer sustain three decades of global hegemony and uncontrolled spending of unbacked funds. Aware of this, Trump and his allies have embraced radical economic protectionism, aiming to transform and restore the national economy within his four-year term. Therefore, the "train" set off in January will not change course. Trump might even allow a mild recession, seeing it as a necessary cleansing of inefficient and unsustainable sectors.

During the 2008–09 financial crisis, President Obama supported all sectors of the U.S. economy, whether profitable or not, by injecting massive amounts of stimulus, effectively showering the economy with "helicopter money." However, such an option is not available today. Investors seem to understand this, exercising extreme caution in their decision-making.

Today marks the start of the Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting. Will it be a turning point? No. The consensus forecast suggests that all monetary policy parameters, including the key interest rate, will remain unchanged at 4.50%. Will Fed Chair Jerome Powell say anything new? Unlikely. The Fed's hands are tightly tied. On the one hand, inflation has corrected down to 2.8% from 3.0%, but it remains far from the 2% target, and the uncertainty surrounding Trump's economic and geopolitical policies only exacerbates the situation. As a result, the Fed's resolution and Powell's press conference are expected to contain nothing groundbreaking. This means that the current market dynamics are likely to persist.

This suggests continued correction for the U.S. stock market following its recent rebound. According to the ICE Dollar Index, the dollar is expected to consolidate against major currencies in the forex market. Gold has already risen above $3,000 per ounce as a safe-haven asset and may continue its upward movement. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is likely to remain under pressure due to prevailing uncertainty.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Daily Forecast:

EUR/USD

The currency pair has lost its upward momentum after fully pricing in the military expansion plans of the EU and Germany. Currently, it is overbought and could experience a collapse due to profit-taking or comments from Powell regarding a positive shift in U.S. inflation tomorrow. A drop below 1.0885 could trigger a decline to 1.0840 and then to 1.0780.

GOLD

Gold is trading above the important psychological level of $3,000 per ounce. It may continue to receive support due to geopolitical risks and uncertainties related to the Ukraine crisis. However, a pullback toward $3,000 is possible before a renewed climb to $3,045.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

El Bitcoin se vende fácilmente

Mientras el mercado debate cómo afectará la legislación sobre las stablecoins, la reanudación de las amenazas arancelarias de Donald Trump deteriora el apetito global por el riesgo y contribuye

Marek Petkovich 13:41 2025-06-02 UTC+2

Los litigios judiciales entre Trump y las empresas sobre los aranceles influirán negativamente en los mercados (existe la probabilidad de que continúe la caída del precio del Bitcoin y del Litecoin)

Los mercados mundiales siguen bajo la fuerte influencia de los acontecimientos que ocurren en Estados Unidos, que tanto en el ámbito político como en el económico se comportan como

Pati Gani 12:57 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 30 de mayo. La justicia prevaleció, ¿pero por cuánto tiempo?

El par de divisas el par GBP/USD el jueves se consolidó por debajo de la línea media móvil, mientras que el dólar creció durante tres días consecutivos. Sin embargo, todo

Paolo Greco 07:40 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 30 de mayo. Jaque a Donald Trump.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó un débil movimiento descendente durante la primera mitad del jueves, pero en la segunda mitad se disparó bruscamente al alza. Vimos un fuerte estallido

Paolo Greco 07:40 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 27 de mayo. La libra esterlina se mantiene estable.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su movimiento alcista el lunes. Es importante señalar de inmediato que la situación con el euro es bastante complicada e inestable. El euro

Paolo Greco 07:28 2025-05-27 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 27 de mayo. El presidente dijo, el presidente cambió de opinión.

El par de divisas EUR/USD reanudó su movimiento alcista durante la sesión del lunes desde la apertura del mercado. Otra caída del dólar estadounidense la semana pasada fue provocada

Paolo Greco 07:28 2025-05-27 UTC+2

El caos en los mercados continuará (hay probabilidad de una continuación de la caída local del #USDX y del precio del oro)

Los mercados continúan actuando a ciegas en medio de las acciones caóticas de D. Trump, quien intenta sacar a EE.UU. de la más profunda crisis integral como el barón

Pati Gani 11:26 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 22 de mayo. El mercado vuelve a responder sin ambigüedades a Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su movimiento hacia el norte el miércoles, aunque a primera vista no había razones claras para ello. Sí, el nivel de inflación (el único

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 22 de mayo. Un nuevo golpe al dólar: «One big beautiful bill act».

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó su movimiento ascendente durante el miércoles. El dólar estadounidense lleva cayendo sin pausa por más de una semana, algo que no sucedía en todo

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

El Bitcoin se convierte en víctima de estafadores

La confianza en el mundo financiero no solo puede perderla el dólar estadounidense. La información sobre el robo de datos de aproximadamente 197 mil clientes de Coinbase, la mayor plataforma

Marek Petkovich 14:05 2025-05-19 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.