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18.02.2013 11:43 AM
EUR/USD. Forecast for February 18, 2013

Trade Balance in Eurozone in December accounted for 12 bln euros against forecast for 10.7 bln. US Capacity Utilization in January was 79.1% vs. expectations for 78.9%. US Industrial Production dropped 0.1% against expected increase by 0.2%. However, the data on US Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production in December was revised and surpassed the previous readings and on the whole, the situation in Europe and the USA is rather smoothed. The euro closed virtually just at the level it was opened.

Today it is a federal holiday in the USA, American markets are closed.

At 13:30 GMT+4 Current Account in Eurozone in December is published. It is expected to be 15.3 bln euros against 14.8 bln.

At 18:30 GMT+4 European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks. We assume that before G-20 and in terms of it all the relevant information was released. A sideways movement with pressure up is expected, as strong economic data is expected tomorrow and on Wednesday.

On the daily chart the price is in range, limited by support from the low of February 15 (1.3305) and the high from December 19 (1.3307) and the high of January 14 (1.3403).

From the technical point of view, the correction of the euro to 1.3420, the trendline on the H4, is expected, the Kruzenshtern line is heading in the same direction on the H4. 1.3375 is the first resistance.

In case 1.3305, the low of February 15, is extended, 1.3264, the support on the H4, may be reached.

In the medium term the trend is bearish.

 

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