EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed another reversal in favor of the US dollar and strengthened under the correction level of 76.4% (1.1367). Thus, the fall of quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% (1.1318). The US dollar received some support from traders after the day before yesterday's words of Jerome Powell that he doubts the rate reduction at the next Fed meeting in July. The Federal Reserve takes a wait-and-see position, and it is most likely waiting for the summit, in which the leader of China and the United States should meet to continue the negotiations on a trade agreement between the two countries, which were interrupted a few months ago. If this does not happen or the negotiations fail, the Fed may reduce the rate in July, as the downward risks to the US economy will increase again. But Donald Trump believes that the Fed is simply obliged to reduce the rate, as the States cannot compete with China because of this. China may loosen its yuan, in which Trump has repeatedly accused him, but the President of the United States has no such effect on the rate. As a result, all the attention of the Forex market this week will be focused on the G20 summit, after which it will be possible to draw some conclusions about the future relations between China and America.
The Fibo grid is built on extremums from March 20, 2019, and May 23, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation below the correction level of 76.4%. Thus, I recommend selling the euro with a target of 1.1318, a protective order above the Fibo level of 76.4%. I recommend buying the EUR/USD pair after the close of quotations above the level of 76.4% for the purpose of a correction level of 1.1448 and a stop-loss order under 1.1367.
GBP/USD – 4H.
After the formation of the bearish divergence at the CCI indicator, the GBP/USD pair performed a fall towards the correction level of 76.4% (1.2661). However, today, on June 27, a bullish divergence was formed in the CCI indicator, as well as the pound/dollar pair rebounded from the level of 76.4%. As a result, the pair may start the growth process towards the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2798). The consolidation of the rate under the level of 76.4% will increase the likelihood of a continuation falling towards the next correction level of 100.0% (1.2437). There is a lot of news from the UK in recent days, but they all have little effect on the English currency. Boris Johnson put forward an ultimatum to the European Union: if the EU does not agree to revise the current agreement on Brexit, London will refuse to pay 50 billion euros of compensation and leave the EU on the "hard" option. The European Union replied that there would be no revision of the agreement, and it is ready for the "hard" option. Meanwhile, the UK is still "decapitated." Theresa May formally remains in her post as Prime Minister, but in fact, she no longer leads the country. And the name of the new Prime Minister will be known on July 23. That is, for a whole month, there will be no progress in Brexit issues.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair fulfilled three days from the correction levels of 61.8% (1.2665) and 76.4% (1.2701) just yesterday, and it remained to trade between them. Traders also received a semblance of a side channel, very narrow, from which the pound has to get out now. Strong levels on both charts do not allow the pair to go further down, but at the same time, the closing below the Fibo level of 61.8% will significantly increase the chances of the pair to continue falling in the direction of correction levels of 50.0% (1.2634) and 38.2% (1.2603).
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 7, 2019, and June 18, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair performed a fall towards the correction level of 61.8%. I recommend selling the pair with the targets of 1.2634 and 1.2603, with the stop-loss order above 1.2665, if the closing is performed under the level of 61.8% (hourly chart). I recommend buying the pair with the purpose of 1.2762 if the closing above the Fibo level is 76.4% and stop-loss order under 1.2701 (hourly chart).
