The price movement in the variable range of 1.1180 // 1.1250 / 1.1350 has been focusing on the market for more than three weeks, where the set boundaries are worked out on a systematic basis, obtaining a simple but no less profitable trading strategy. he past day gave an opportunity to partially return to the market short positions, on the basis of which there was a rebound from the 1.1350 border with the price moving in the direction of the mirror level of 1.1250.
The emotional component of the market signals a high speculative interest, which confirms the volatility, which since the beginning of the week has an average of 88 points.
The news background of the past day contained JOLTS data on the number of open vacancies in the United States, where the previous figures were revised for the worse 5,046 thousand -> 4,996 thousand, and current data came out better than the forecast of 4,500 thousand -> 5 397 thousand
Market reaction to JOLTS data was in favor of the US dollar.
In terms of informational background, forecasts of the European Commission on domestic and foreign economies were published. The global economic crisis caused by the coronavirus infection has brought a lot of troubles, the decline in world GDP in 2020 will be greater than predicted in the spring and will reach 4%, recovery according to the European Commission's expectations will begin in 2021 at 5% of GDP.
In the European Union, forecasts were revised by France, Italy, and Spain, which were hit by the pandemic the hardest; GDP in 2020 will decline by more than 10% and Germany's GDP will decline by 6.3%.
The European Commission, as before, predicts that the EU economy will recover in 2021. Growth in the EU is expected at 5.8%.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have statistics worth paying attention to, therefore, it is worthwhile to carefully analyze the technical picture of the market and filter out the external background.
Further development
From the point of view of a comprehensive analysis, we see the retention of the downward move set on the day before, where the quote came close to the local minimum of 1.1259, which can give the next signal in short positions.
The burning forecast is that if the price manages to consolidate lower than 1.1259, then a path will open in the direction of the value 1.1225. That is, the clock component of the flat range 1.1180 // 1.1250 // 1.1350 will not be violated, which means that the trading system from border to border will be relevant.
An alternative scenario is considered in the case of deceleration relative to the coordinates and fixing the price higher than 1.1285.
Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:
- Consider buy deals in case of price consolidating higher than 1.1285, in the direction of 1.1305-1.1330.
- Consider sell deals lower than 1.1259, in the direction of 1.1225.
Indicator analysis
Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF), we see that indicators of technical instruments relative to minute and hour intervals signal a sale due to the price rebound from the upper boundaries of the variable range [1.1180 // 1.1250 // 1.1350]. The daily period, as before, signals a purchase.
Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Volatility measurement reflects the average daily fluctuation calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(July 8 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)
The volatility of the current time is 20 points, which is 74% lower than the daily average. It can be assumed that in case of keeping the downward mood and consolidating the price below the minimum of the past day, another round of acceleration may occur, which will lead to increased volatility.
Key levels
Resistance Zones: 1.1300; 1.1440 / 1.1500; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support Zones: 1.1180 **; 1.1080; 1.1000 ***; 1.0850 **; 1.0775 *; 1.0650 (1.0636); 1.0500 ***; 1.0350 **; 1.0000 ***.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** Psychological level
