EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair was trading in such a way that you should not open the terminal at least. During the day, the pair passed from a minimum to a maximum of 30 points. What can you say and how can you trade in such conditions? The most interesting thing is that macroeconomic statistics were not published on Monday, and on Tuesday, on the contrary, a rather important report on GDP for the first quarter in the European Union was published in the third estimate, which unexpectedly turned out to be much better than the two previous ones. GDP in the first quarter is now estimated at -1.3% y/y and -0.3% q/q. Previously, the figures were as follows: -1.8% y/y and -0.6% q/q. The moment when this report was published is marked with the number "1" on the chart. As you can see, traders did not react to this report. As for trading signals, it is good that there weren't any that were formed during the day and, accordingly, trades should not have been opened. The Kijun-sen line successfully moved lower to the level of 1.2161. And so the price never reached it. Otherwise, a huge number of false signals could be generated. In general, the euro/dollar pair broke all volatility anti-records on Tuesday and it is good that there wasn't any signal during the day.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 9. The ECB can declare a maximum decrease in the rate of bond purchases on Thursday.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 9. London "muddying the waters" again, and the European Union threatens to answer powerfully and toughly for any violation of the Brexit agreement.
EUR/USD 1H
The euro/dollar pair traded in a dull manner on the hourly timeframe, and there is no way to make any special conclusions after a day has passed. The pair recently crossed the downward trend line, but this does not mean that an upward trend has now formed. The price continues to remain within the limited price range, while there is no clear trend. On Wednesday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines that are indicated on the hourly timeframe. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.2104, 1.2160, 1.2213 and 1.2243, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.2199) and Kijun-sen (1.2161) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. No important events or macroeconomic reports for the European Union and the United States on Wednesday. Therefore, volatility could be low, and the movement within the day may be close to flat.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 25 points during the last reporting week (May 25-31). The new Commitment of Traders (COT) reports showed that professional traders continue to build up buy positions in the European currency. This time they opened only 751 new Buy contracts, but closed 3,900 Sell contracts. Thus, the net position for this group of traders increased again, by 4,600. The bullish mood of professional traders is getting stronger, which can be clearly seen from the second indicator in the chart above, which reflects the changes in the net position for the "non-commercial" group. We see that this indicator has been constantly growing since mid-April, increasing the likelihood of further strengthening of the European currency. We have already said that the actions of the Fed and the US Congress are now simply blocking the actions of players in the foreign exchange market. Simply because professional traders make deals in both directions, and the Fed and the US authorities are constantly pouring new hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. Therefore, the dollar is declining, despite the actions of the participants in the foreign exchange market. It seems that in recent months, players realized what they would have to work with in 2021, and simply followed the trend, not wanting to compete with the Fed. As a result, in early April, judging by the first indicator, a new round of the upward trend began.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
