GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair also began to correct on Monday against the fall in the second half of last week. Thus, we conclude that now all movements of the two main pairs depend solely on the demand for the US dollar, which, in turn, depends on the fundamental background from overseas. Since we did not receive new data from there on Monday, and there will be few of them throughout the current week, then it is extremely difficult to count on the dollar for further support. In addition, in our fundamental articles, we have already paid attention to the fact that globally nothing has changed for the pound/dollar pair, and its last fall looks somewhat random. Thus, we believe that the upward trend will recover in the long term. Several signals were formed on Monday, and they could bring profit to traders, since the movement itself was very calm during the day, without sharp reversals and pullbacks. Let's take a look at what trades should have been opened. At the very beginning of the European trading session, two signals were formed near the extremum level of 1.3807. First, the price surpassed this level, and then bounced off it. Therefore, long positions should have been opened here. The price behaved quite unambiguously near the next extremum level, having surpassed it. There was no rebound, so there was no reason to close long positions. Then the extreme level of 1.3886 was reached, from which the price bounced, so it was necessary to close long positions here, which eventually brought around 55 points of profit. Since there was a rebound from the level of 1.3886, then it was necessary to open short positions here, but this signal turned out to be false, since a little later the price still crossed the level of 1.3886. The short position lost around 20 points. But after surpassing the level of 1.3886, one should immediately open new long positions with 1.3935 and 1.3958 as the targets. In the middle of the US trading session, which is when we already recommended leaving the market on the sly, you could have manually closed this position at a profit of about 20 points, which would offset losses on a short position. Thus, you could have earned 55 points yesterday. There were no major fundamentals or macroeconomic releases on Monday in either the US or the UK.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. 22nd of June. The Fed and the ECB will continue to put pressure on their currencies.
Review of the GBP/USD pair. 22nd of June. The Bank of England meeting may cause the opposite reaction from the Fed meeting in the markets.
GBP/USD 1H
An upward correction is also clearly visible on the hourly pound/dollar timeframe. So far, it is difficult to say whether the upward movement will continue and whether the global upward trend will recover in the near future. The markets reacted too violently to the results of the Federal Reserve meeting, so now it is necessary for both major pairs to consolidate, which may take another couple of days. Technically, we continue to draw your attention to the most important levels and recommend trading from them (note that some of them have been moved, some have been removed): 1.3677, 1.3800, 1.3886, 1.3975 and 1 , 4008. Senkou Span B (1.4116) and Kijun-sen (1.3958) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. There will be no major publications in the United Kingdom and the United States on Tuesday, we only have Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in the evening. Traders can already leave the market before the speech begins. Also, the Bank of England will be summing up the results of its meeting on Thursday, so volatility may decrease by today or tomorrow.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by 70 points during the last reporting week (June 8-14). However, the new Commitment of Traders (COT) report was not released on Friday, so no special conclusions can be drawn on the current mood of the major players. It is necessary to wait for the new report, but it won't provide a complete picture of the state of affairs, since the last three trading days will not be included in it. But it was during these three days that the pound lost around 300 points, so it can be assumed that professional traders closed long positions and opened short ones. Consequently, the mood of traders could change and become less bullish. However, all of this will become known when the new COT report is published. So far we can say that in recent weeks nothing has changed much with the mood of the "non-commercial" group, which is the most important of all. This is not surprising, since the pair stood practically in one place for the entire month. We believe that global fundamentals will continue to have a negative impact on the US dollar, but this does not mean that the pound cannot fall in the short and medium term. As for the indicators, they also did not show any changes in recent weeks. In the first indicator, the green and red lines (net positions of groups of traders "non-commercial" and "commercial") continue to move sideways, and in the second indicator, the histogram has been at approximately the same level in recent weeks, which signals the absence of any or changes in the mood of professional players.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
