The EUR/USD currency pair moved in different directions on Friday and Monday. The last trading day of 2021 and the first trading day of 2022 turned out to be quite active, the markets traded very cheerfully. However, we have already said that in the conditions of a "thin" market, movements are possible even on holidays. The most important thing is that in the last month the pair was inevitably inside the side channel between the Murray levels "0/8" - 1.1230 and "2/8" - 1.1353. And only at the very end of last year, traders managed to gain a foothold briefly above this channel, which now gives hope to the European currency for the formation of a new upward trend. Recall that the last downward trend, which was observed for most of last year, also began at the very beginning of the year – in the first days of January. So, why not start forming a new upward trend now? Moreover, since the dollar has been getting more expensive for 12 months, it's time to at least adjust up a little. We still believe that the growth of the US currency in the second half of 2021 was triggered by market expectations regarding the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. And although the Fed has just begun to curtail the quantitative stimulus program, the dollar has risen in price as if the regulator had already raised the rate several times. Thus, it is now very important to understand whether the markets have won back all future increases in the Fed's key rate? After all, the markets have known for a long time that there will be two or three increases this year. And in such conditions, trading often begins "ahead of the curve". Likely, at this time all future Fed tightening has already been worked out by the market. If so, then the further growth of the dollar is a big question. On the other hand, the ECB continues to take the most "dovish" position and does not give any support to the European currency.
The WHO does not believe that the pandemic is nearing its end.
Meanwhile, WHO representative Melita Vujnovic shared her opinion on the prospects of a pandemic in 2022. According to Vujnovic, the pandemic is now in full swing, and for it to move into the endemic stage, at least 70% of the vaccinated population on the whole planet is required. At the same time, Vujnovic is afraid of new mutations and strains that may be more dangerous than the previous ones. The last year and a half have shown that the "coronavirus" is constantly changing and adapting to its environment and the vaccines that act against it. And this means that new mutations will continue to appear. And in such conditions, it is impossible to predict when the pandemic will decline. The WHO also said that in the coming weeks, the omicron strain will become dominant in almost all countries in which it has been detected. It has already become such in the UK, Denmark, and Portugal. A huge number of cases of the disease can create a serious burden on hospitals and lead to big problems in the healthcare sector. Although omicron is less dangerous than delta, the total number of diseases, much greater than with delta, can lead to more hospitalizations. The WHO also noted that omicron can bypass the protection of immunity in people who have already been ill. In addition, we know that omicron freely infects those people who have been fully vaccinated. Ms. Vujnovic, in principle, openly stated that the main task of vaccines is to reduce the number of hospitalizations and deaths from the "coronavirus". In addition, the WHO does not believe that omicron itself will become a "vaccine" since it can infect all inhabitants of the planet and develop their natural and collective immunity. Vujnovic stated that none of the highly contagious diseases were defeated naturally. Therefore, it is unlikely that this will be the case with the "coronavirus".
From all of the above, it follows that it is unlikely that the "coronavirus" will be defeated in 2021. Most likely, we are waiting for another year of struggle, wearing masks, various restrictions, vaccination, and other delights of the pandemic.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of January 4 is 78 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1204 and 1.1361. The upward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator signals a new round of upward movement in the limited range of 1.1230 - 1.1353.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.1292
S2 – 1.1230
S3 – 1.1169
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1353
R2 – 1.1414
R3 – 1.1475
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues to be located inside the 1.1230-1.1353 channel. Thus, the movement now remains as lateral as possible and inconvenient for trading, although, for example, yesterday the volatility was quite high. We expect that today there may be an upward reversal and a new round of upward movement. It is good if it is preceded by a rebound from 1.1230.
