For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave markup continues to look very convincing, but in the near future, it may become somewhat more complicated. The increase in quotes last week complicates the expected wave b and it turns out to be longer than wave a. Since three internal waves are already being viewed inside wave b, this wave must be completed. However, it does not end, and the decline of the instrument does not begin. Based on this, I assume that wave b can take an even more extended form, a five-wave one, and more waves d and e will be built. However, there are no internal waves visible in wave a-E, so this complication of wave b looks strange. At the same time, a three-wave structure is visible inside wave D, so it cannot be the first impulse wave of a new upward trend segment. And the entire downward section of the trend, which originates on June 1, 2021, can be both three-wave and five-wave. Thus, the wave picture is ambiguous now, but I still tend to believe that another descending wave E will be built.
Important statistics did not interest the market.
The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument decreased by 25 basis points during February 18. There was no information background on Friday, however, the market moved quite active during the day. I cannot say that it moved under the impression of geopolitical news. It is quite possible that this is not the case. But since there was no economic news at all, the market had to observe only the geopolitical situation in the Donbas. Not even in Ukraine, not in Russia, but the Donbas. Because it was there that new shelling from both sides began, as well as the evacuation of civilians from the unrecognized republics of the DPR and LPR. From my point of view, an escalation of the conflict is brewing, since no one will simply evacuate several million civilians. Moreover, the conflict in the Donbas has been dragging on for 8 years. No one had ever thought of evacuating anyone before. Moreover, the local male population received summonses to the military enlistment offices, that is, the LNR and DNR will form their army. All this "smells" very bad. The probability of deterioration of the geopolitical situation is growing. And if it happens, then the foreign exchange market, like other markets, may start to panic. In this case, the movements will become more complicated and may not take place in accordance with the current wave marking or at least common sense.
General conclusions.
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument assumes the construction of a wave E. The construction of the proposed wave b is completed, or this wave is not b. The instrument made two unsuccessful attempts to break the 1.3645 mark, and wave b acquired a five-wave appearance. Already on Monday, the decline in quotes should begin, and I believe that a wave c-E will still be built. Therefore, I advise now selling with targets located around the 1.3272 mark, which corresponds to 61.8% Fibonacci, until a successful attempt to break through the 1.3645 mark. Otherwise, the wave pattern will require additions.
On the higher scale, wave D also looks complete, but the entire downward section of the trend does not. Therefore, in the coming weeks, I expect a resumption of the decline of the instrument with targets below the low of wave C. Wave D turned out to be a three-wave, so I cannot interpret it as wave 1 of a new upward trend segment.
