Analysis of GBP/USD 5M.
The GBP/USD currency pair traded less actively on Thursday than the EUR/USD pair. In the first half of the day, the pair made several attempts to start a new round of downward movement. These attempts were not based on fundamental or macroeconomic events, as in the UK, all the most interesting things are planned for today. It was in the afternoon that an inflation report was published in the States, which provoked a fairly strong dollar growth. New growth of the dollar. If you look at the older timeframes, it is visible that the pound failed to adjust normally after a strong fall. Therefore, it seems that even without American inflation, the pair would have resumed it. Moreover, there is practically no support for risky currencies now.
There were very few trading signals during the past day. Only one. And it was formed when most of the downward movement was already behind. It was only when the price broke the level of 1.3134 that this sell signal was formed. It was possible to work it out: it was formed not too late and after an important report on inflation in the United States had already been published. After its formation, the price went down about 20-30 more points, which could be earned, since the deal had to be closed manually (the target level of 1.3082 was not worked out).
COT Report:
The latest COT report on the British pound showed an increase in bullish sentiment among professional traders. And a week earlier - the strengthening of the "bearish" mood. In general, the mood of the major players changes too often, which is seen by the two indicators in the illustration above. At the moment, the net position of the "Non-commercial" group is near zero, which means a "neutral" mood. The same conclusion is confirmed by the absolute data on the number of open contracts. There are 51 thousand of them for purchase now, and 50 thousand for sale. That is almost complete equality. Moreover, since July last year, professional traders have not been able to decide where to trade the British pound. Only in December, there was a serious strengthening of the "bearish" mood, which led to a significant drop in the UK currency. The rest of the time, the players cannot decide in the medium term what to do with the pound. Therefore, the absence of a strong fall in the British pound partly corresponds to the COT reports. However, we still believe that COT reports are not the best tool for forecasting right now. At a time when the whole world is increasing demand for the dollar as a reserve currency, we can expect growth of this particular currency, despite any data from COT reports. This is exactly the picture we are seeing now in the euro currency, where purchases are growing, and the currency itself is falling at the same time. Thus, geopolitics remains in the first place in terms of importance.
Analysis of GBP/USD 1H.
In the hourly timeframe, it very quickly returned to the 1.3082-1.3134 channel, failing to work out the trend line and failing to overcome the critical line. Thus, the correction turned out to be very weak, and the price almost fell to its local lows last night. Thus, these lows may be overcome today. Unless the British statistics turn out to be very strong. On March 11, we highlighted the following important levels: 1.3082, 1.3134, 1.3273, 1.3367. The Senkou Span B (1.3359) and Kijun-sen (1.3195) lines can also be signal sources. Signals can be "bounces" and "surmounts" of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Also in the illustration, there are support and resistance levels that can be used to fix profits on transactions. On Friday, the UK is scheduled to publish relatively important reports on GDP and industrial production. The second one got into the list of important ones purely formally. Only the GDP report has a chance to influence the pair's movement during the day. And then only if its actual value will be very different from the forecast. There will be no important events in the USA today.
Explanations to the illustrations:
Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) - thick red lines, near which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines - the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Are strong lines.
Extreme levels- thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines - trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts - the net position size of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts - the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group.
