GBP/USD 5M

The GBP/USD currency pair was trading inside the horizontal channel on Monday. Traders could have witnessed a "boring Monday" and volatility was quite low. However, there have been some fairly important reports published in the UK. However, they did not influence the pair's movement too much in the first half of the day. The British pound fell after data on GDP and industrial production were published. However, this fall did not last long and at the same European session the quotes managed to rise to the level of 1.3050. Which, however, could not be overcome. Therefore, the price continues to remain below the lines of the Ichimoku indicator. And traders continue to wait for reports on British and US inflation. This is not to say that these reports are able to push the bears to become active again. Or, conversely, to force the bulls to buy. Rather, they will either strengthen or weaken expectations regarding the tightening of monetary policy at the upcoming meetings of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. Thus, these data are very important, but it is not a fact that today and tomorrow the market will work them out properly. There may be a situation in which there will be a surge in volatility, but this will not help resume the downward trend or start an upward correction.

Only one trading signal was formed yesterday. When the pair rose to the extreme level of 1.3050 and rebounded from it, traders could open short positions. Subsequently, the price managed to go down only 15 points, but did not return back to 1.3050 and did not settle higher. Therefore, this deal had to be closed manually, therefore, 10-15 points could be earned on it. This is not much, but there was no trend movement on Monday, and there was only one signal. Under such trading conditions, it was difficult to count on anything more.

COT report:

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound showed minimal changes in the mood of major players. For a whole week, the non-commercial group opened 5,200 long positions and 6,900 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 1,700. Even for the pound, such changes are insignificant. In general, the non-commercial group still has almost 2.5 times more contracts for shorts than longs. This means that the mood of professional traders is now "pronounced bearish". Thus, this is another factor that speaks in favor of the continuation of the pound's fall. The situation with COT reports for the pound is completely different than for the euro. According to the pound, the mood of the major players changes every couple of months, and sometimes even more often. At this time, the net position of the non-commercial group has already fallen to the levels where the last round of the pound's fall ended (the green line on the first indicator). Thus, we can even assume that in the coming weeks the pound will try to start a new ascent. However, the current fundamental and geopolitical background does not give good reasons to expect a strong growth of the British currency. Even taking into account the rate increase by the Bank of England.

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GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, you can clearly see how the pair continues its downward movement in general. There is no trend line at this time, as there are too many possible reference points, and the previous trend lines are no longer relevant. The movement is really inconvenient for traders. The pound retains high chances of falling, as the fundamental and geopolitical background remains on the side of the US currency. It will be possible to talk about the possibilities of the British pound not earlier than overcoming the critical line. In this case, it will be possible to count on growth at least to the Senkou Span B line. On April 12, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2981, 1.3050, 1.3119, 1.3175. Senkou Span B (1.3137) and Kijun-sen (1.3074) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. The publication of unemployment and wages reports is scheduled for Tuesday in the UK. This is not the most important data for the market, but a certain reaction may follow. More likely to see a reaction to the report on US inflation, which will be released in the afternoon and may fix another acceleration in prices.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.