empty
11.02.2019 01:44 PM
Weekly review of the foreign exchange market for February 11, 2019

The dollar couldn't improve its position in relation to the single European currency and the pound. Although in the United States themselves no significant macroeconomic data did not come out. It is difficult to name data on production orders or orders for durable goods, as well as applications for unemployment benefits, are so decisive. At the same time, production orders decreased by 0.6%, while orders for durable goods increased by 0.7%. The number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 61 thousand. In particular, the number of initial applications decreased by 19 thousand and repeated ones by 42 thousand. In addition to all this, consumer lending amounted to $ 16.6 billion against $ 22.4 billion dollars in the previous month. In other words, there was no serious data. So the matter is both in the European statistics and in the political factors that attract the most attention of the mass media agitation and disinformation. One of the main events was the speech of Donald Trump in Congress. The owner of the White House praised himself for his success in the economy, which, he said, demonstrates the best dynamics in recent decades. The most important thing is that the President of the United States promised to continue to pursue a policy of revising the trade agreements that discriminate against America. If you translate it into human language, the United States will continue to squeeze foreign capital from its market and twist the hands of all other countries in order to receive privileges for its capital in foreign markets. That is, Donald Trump explained to all potential investors, they say, invest your money in the economy of the United States, not in Europe or elsewhere.

This image is no longer relevant

Nevertheless, even without the help of Donald Trump, the single European currency had enough reasons for sadness. The growth rates of producer prices slowed from 4.0% to 3.0%, and retail sales from 1.8% to 0.8%. Not only did the data have more weight than those released in the United States, but they were also purely negative.

In Britain, the epic continues with Brexit, only Mark Carney was able to get away from the discussion of which. Theresa May, following the instructions of the British Parliament, went to Brussels for a new agreement. There she was waiting for a complete fiasco, which the British mass agitation and disinformation tried to present as a victory. Jean-Claude Juncker, expressing his understanding of the concerns of the British parliamentarians, vowed to make additions to the wording of the political declaration, which reinforces the intentions of the parties to constructive cooperation after Brexit. However, given that the time before the UK's withdrawal from the European Union is less and less, and the changes need to be coordinated with each country separately, this will happen not earlier than the UK's eviction from the European dormitory. The head of the European Commission almost swore by blood that the interests of Albion will be taken into account. However, there can be no talk about amending the text of the agreement, which the British Parliament rejected. Europe does not intend to revise the document, which has already been approved by all countries of the European Union. The agreement regulates the obligations of the parties, and the political declaration does not oblige anyone to anything. That is, Theresa May did not achieve anything. Although this was to be expected since European politicians have long been saying that the agreement will not be revised. However, the media agitation and misinformation were able to give it all so that investors were optimistic about the pound. Only after a couple of days, market participants have not received their sight, but have changed their attitude towards the pound itself. It's all about the meeting of the Board of the Bank of England, after which a press conference was held by Mark Carney. The head of the Bank of England is probably the most serious specialist in drafting apocalyptic predictions of what the UK is waiting for after Brexit, and he did not go out of his role. Mark Carney once again scared with incredible risks and consequences of this very Brexit, and also added that in the event of development of events under the worst scenario, it is worth thinking about easing monetary policy. From his words, it follows that there will be no increase in the refinancing rate this year. He also added that the Bank of England lowered the forecast for economic growth rates for the current year. That is, having lowered this very forecast, the Bank of England just proceeds from the worst scenario, and it is worth waiting just to lower the refinancing rate.

This image is no longer relevant

This week, much more macroeconomic data is waiting for us, and, to be honest, the American statistics are causing considerable concern. In particular, inflation should fall from 1.9% to 1.6%, and the growth rate of producer prices from 2.5% to 2.1%, which will finally convince everyone that this year the Fed will not raise the refinancing rate. It is too early to talk about the possible easing of monetary policy, but there is something to worry about. In addition, a further decline in retail sales is expected, which, combined with a slowdown in inflation, is generally a nightmare for investors of all stripes. Yes, and the industry can disobey the orders of its commander in chief, and continue sluggish slowdown. So, American statistics expectations are strictly negative.

It cannot be said that in Europe the opposite hopes, since the growth rate of industrial production, or rather its decline, should only slow down from -3.3% to -3.1%. Yes, and another assessment of GDP growth rates is likely to confirm their slowdown from 1.6% to 1.2%. Nevertheless, the slowdown in inflation in the United States is a much more weighty argument, and the single European currency can rise to 1.1400.

This image is no longer relevant

In the United Kingdom comes a whole heap of statistics, and, as an evil, extremely important. After all, this may interfere with the voluptuous discussion of Brexit. Instead, you will need to make boring conversations about the current economic situation. And because some of the data is already out. Thus, a preliminary estimate of GDP showed a slowdown in economic growth from 1.6% to 1.3%. Investments continued to decline, and their decline slowed down from -1.9% to -3.7%. Only industrial production was somewhat pleased, as the pace of its decline slowed down from -1.3% to -0.9%. Surely, there will be those who are ready to rejoice in such notable achievements of the British industry. We are still waiting for data on inflation and retail sales. Inflation fits completely into the picture of already released data since it should decrease from 2.1% to 2.0%. Retail sales can postpone the onset of the apocalypse, which is predicted by Mark Carney since their growth rates should accelerate from 3.0% to 3.4%. So the forecasts and the results are clearly deplorable. But in the United States is no better. Consequently, if they do not again make a fuss about Brexit, the pound will remain in the area of 1.2950.

This image is no longer relevant

Mark Bom,
Chuyên gia phân tích của InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Alexandr Davidov
Start trade
Kiếm lợi nhuận từ những biến đổi giá của tiền điện tử với InstaForex.
Tải MetaTrader 4 và mở giao dịch đầu tiên của bạn.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    THAM GIA CUỘC THI

Các bài báo được đề xuất

EUR/JPY. Phân tích và Dự báo

Sự khác biệt trong chính sách tiền tệ của Ngân hàng Nhật Bản và Ngân hàng Trung ương Châu Âu đòi hỏi sự thận trọng đối với những người

Irina Yanina 11:58 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Thị Trường Không Kịp Sợ Hãi

Tình huống tồi tệ nhất đã được tránh. Điều này đủ để S&P 500 đạt mức kỷ lục mới - lần thứ 16 trong năm nay. Dữ liệu lạm phát

Marek Petkovich 09:57 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Cắt Giảm Lãi Suất của Fed và Đột Phá trong Khủng Hoảng Ukraine Mang Lại Lợi Ích cho Thị Trường Tài Chính (Khả Năng Bitcoin và #USDX Sụt Giảm)

Báo cáo lạm phát được công bố vào thứ Ba đã củng cố kỳ vọng của các nhà đầu tư rằng ngân hàng trung ương Mỹ sẽ cắt giảm

Pati Gani 09:44 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Nên Chú Ý Điều Gì Vào Ngày 13 Tháng 8? Phân Tích Các Sự Kiện Cơ Bản Dành Cho Người Mới Bắt Đầu

Chỉ có một thông báo kinh tế vĩ mô được lên lịch vào thứ Tư — ước tính thứ hai về lạm phát tháng Bảy của Đức. Trong

Paolo Greco 06:58 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Tổng quan về GBP/USD – Ngày 13 tháng 8: Đang chờ đợi ngày thứ Sáu...

Cặp tiền tệ GBP/USD một lần nữa giao dịch khá chậm vào thứ Ba. Vào buổi sáng, Vương quốc Anh đã công bố dữ liệu về thất nghiệp và tiền

Paolo Greco 03:49 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Tổng quan EUR/USD – Ngày 13 tháng 8: Trump và Trung Quốc Đã Đạt Được Thỏa Thuận — Một Lần Nữa, Tạm Thời

Đôi tiền tệ EUR/USD một lần nữa giao dịch khá ổn định. Mặc dù cặp tiền này không hẳn bị kẹt tại chỗ, sự biến động vẫn ở mức thấp

Paolo Greco 03:49 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Liệu có thể đã có "lỗi" trong báo cáo lạm phát hay không?

Báo cáo lạm phát mới nhất của Hoa Kỳ, không hề khiêm tốn, đã gây ấn tượng mạnh. Mặc dù có mức thuế nhập khẩu cao nhất

Chin Zhao 00:29 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Đạt được đình chiến, nhưng chưa có thỏa thuận thương mại

Vào thứ Ba, đồng đô la nhận được tin tốt đầu tiên trong những tuần qua. Thị trường đã sớm quên việc Donald Trump khéo léo ký các thỏa thuận

Chin Zhao 00:29 2025-08-13 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Báo cáo Tăng trưởng CPI của Mỹ Cho thấy Điều gì?

Báo cáo tăng trưởng CPI của Mỹ cho thấy sự trì trệ trong lạm phát tiêu đề và sự gia tăng trong lạm phát cơ bản. Tuy nhiên

Irina Manzenko 00:29 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Đồng Đô la Phá Vỡ Quy Tắc

Để xây dựng một cái mới, trước tiên bạn phải phá hủy mọi thứ cũ đi. Đây là nguyên tắc mà Donald Trump đang áp dụng trong việc

Marek Petkovich 00:29 2025-08-13 UTC+2
Không thể nói chuyện ngay bây giờ?
Đặt câu hỏi của bạn trong phần trò chuyện.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.